Düsseldorf
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Aiste is Global Insight Manager - Economies at Euromonitor International. She focuses on global economic analysis and its impact on business.
Aiste leads strategic economic analysis and provides client advisory support on macroeconomic outlooks, scenario planning, and the business implications of geopolitical developments across global markets. Drawing on more than 10 years of consulting experience, she supports businesses in turning economic change into clearer decisions on risk, resilience and growth. Aiste brings 10+ years experience of working at Euromonitor. Before moving to economic analysis, Aiste worked on ad-hoc consulting projects for the company.
The US has introduced a new round of Trump tariffs, keeping tariff pressure in place after the previous temporary 10% global duties expired on 24 July 2026. For many major economies, the headline rate has not changed; the bigger shift is that the tariffs now sit on a more durable framework, with some partners facing higher 12.5% rates.
The US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding, signed on 17 June, marks a pivotal shift from disruption to stabilisation — consistent with Euromonitor's central scenario, which anticipated conditions beginning to ease in mid-2026. However, the deal is a starting point, not a resolution. Mines, fragile confidence, and infrastructure damage mean full recovery of Strait of Hormuz shipping flows will take months. Energy costs and supply chain pressures will ease gradually, while uncertainty remains elevated.
The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, a consequence of the US/Israel-Iran war, has emerged as the defining economic disruption of 2026. The impact extends beyond energy markets: rerouted shipping, airspace restrictions and disrupted exports of petrochemicals and fertilisers have raised freight and input costs globally, reducing margins and exposing the depth of vulnerability in energy importing and trade-dependent economies.