Economy, Finance and Trade: The UK

May 2024

In 2023, the UK’s GDP growth slowed considerably, to 0.1%, with the last two quarters of 2023 seeing a contraction in GDP. Despite receding inflationary pressures, inflation remains above the Bank of England’s target, while households are pressured by a high cost of living. Furthermore, the UK’s fiscal policy in 2023 was marked by a budget deficit and increasing public debt. However, the country’s economic development is projected to improve slightly in 2024.

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Overview:

The Country Briefings series examine market potential, economic and consumer trends impacting each country and how they are set to change.

Each Country Briefing covers one of these topics:

Economy, Finance and Trade: Understanding the structure, health and potential risks of an economy are important for decision-making within an existing operating environment as well as for expansion strategies. Real GDP growth, inflation and exchange rate fluctuations will directly impact consumer market potential. Import and export trade profiles help gauge how open an economy is to trade and investment, while analysis of government finances can be used to explore macroeconomic stability and susceptibility to economic shocks.

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Households: Global shifts in gender, ageing, migration and housing are transforming the size, location,  general make-up as well as income and expenditure of households around the globe, with diverse implications for governments and companies. Households insights can help identify the decision-making processes and consumption tastes of different household groups and types within a country, and assess household appliance and digital readiness that is key for formulating market technology and internet strategies.

Business Dynamics: A stable and competitive business environment is vital to operate efficiently and attract inward investment. Businesses can assess these factors alongside challenges such as corruption, political instability and terrorism, also gain insight into business operating environment and make strategic investment decisions. Transport infrastructure, ICT readiness and labour force dynamics will also identify potential issues with a supply chain and the level of workforce skills.

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The briefings cover 103 countries and identify topics of crucial interest to planners, marketers and researchers.

Economy, Finance and Trade: The UK

HEADLINES

Economic growth sharply decelerates in 2023, with slight recovery forecast for 2024
Inflationary pressures recede, but it remains above the target
UK enters into new trade agreements post-Brexit
New tax cuts may place additional pressure on public finances

COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS

Chart 1 Economic Landscape of the UK 2023-2028
Chart 2 Real GDP Growth in the UK 2010-2028
Chart 3 GDP Size and Growth 2018-2028
Chart 4 Gross Value Added by Sector in the UK 2023
Chart 5 Domestic Demand 2023 and Period Growth 2018-2023
Chart 6 Standardised Business Confidence Index 2018-2025
Chart 7 Standardised Consumer Confidence Index 2018-2025
Chart 8 Productivity 2018/2023
Chart 9 Productivity by Sector in the UK 2023 and CAGR 2018-2023
Chart 10 Monetary Landscape of the UK 2023
Chart 11 Inflation 2018-2028
Chart 12 Average Inflation 2018-2028
Chart 13 Interest Rates in the UK 2018-2025
Chart 14 Exchange Rates 2018-2025
Chart 15 Money Supply Growth and Money Velocity in the UK 2018-2025
Chart 16 Foreign Trade Landscape of the UK 2023
Chart 17 Exports and Export Price Index in the UK 2018-2023
Chart 18 Exports by Commodity in the UK 2023
Chart 19 Top 10 Export Destinations 2023 and Period Growth 2018-2023
Chart 20 Imports and Import Price Index in the UK 2018-2023
Chart 21 Imports by Commodity in the UK 2023
Chart 22 Top 10 Import Origins 2023 and Period Growth 2018-2023
Chart 23 Investment Landscape of the UK 2022-2023
Chart 24 Foreign Direct Investment Inflows and FDI intensity 2022
Chart 25 Foreign Direct Investment Inflows and Outflows in the UK 2017-2022
Chart 26 Gross Fixed Capital Formation in the UK 2018-2025
Chart 27 Government Budget Landscape of the UK 2023
Chart 28 Public Debt 2023
Chart 29 Government Revenue 2023
Chart 30 Government Expenditure 2023
Chart 31 Government Expenditure by Economic Type in the UK 2023
Chart 32 Government Expenditure by Function in the UK 2023 and Period Growth 2018-2023
Chart 33 Baseline and Scenario Forecasts in the UK 2022-2028
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