Amid the global economic slowdown, weaker private consumption, business spending and capital investment are expected to weigh on commodity demand and curb price growth. However, the outlook remains highly uncertain due to elevated geopolitical risks, which could lead to supply disruptions and intensify price volatility, especially in energy markets.
Global inflationary pressures are forecast to moderate further in 2024. Under the baseline scenario, global inflation is predicted to stand at 4.9% in 2024, down from 6.9% in 2023. Stricter monetary policies, weaker economic growth and a consequent demand slowdown are helping to ease the price pressures.
Globalisation has boosted global growth and facilitated the rise of emerging markets. Yet, the shifting global economic balance of power has increasingly led to political backlash, trade conflicts and protectionism. The COVID-19 pandemic and war in Ukraine have greatly exacerbated existing geopolitical tensions, leading to an increasing fragmentation and reorganisation of the global economy. Therefore, businesses need to adjust strategies to mitigate risks and seize new opportunities.
The global economy has continued to show unexpected resilience in the second half of 2023 despite elevated inflation and restrictive monetary policy in most economies. In large part, this has been the result of surprising strength of the US economy, driven by robust consumer spending, low unemployment and high services sector activity.
Easing of inflationary pressures and looser monetary policy are expected to benefit Brazilian consumers and lift their purchasing power, although slower global economic growth will constrain faster disposable income growth in 2024. For companies, it will be key to provide good value for money for goods and services to gain customer loyalty in Brazil.