Editor's Choice
US-Iran Agreement Signals Fragile Economic Stabilisation
26 Jun 26The US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding, signed on 17 June, marks a pivotal shift from disruption to stabilisation — consistent with Euromonitor's central scenario, which anticipated conditions beginning to ease in mid-2026. However, the deal is a starting point, not a resolution. Mines, fragile confidence, and infrastructure damage mean full recovery of Strait of Hormuz shipping flows will take months. Energy costs and supply chain pressures will ease gradually, while uncertainty remains elevated.
Aiste Bijune
Global Economic Outlook for Q2 2026: Growth Redefined by Energy Shock
8 Jun 26The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, a consequence of the US/Israel-Iran war, has emerged as the defining economic disruption of 2026. The impact extends beyond energy markets: rerouted shipping, airspace restrictions and disrupted exports of petrochemicals and fertilisers have raised freight and input costs globally, reducing margins and exposing the depth of vulnerability in energy importing and trade-dependent economies.
Aiste Bijune
Infographic: Impact of Iran War on Industries and Consumers
26 May 26The US/Israel-Iran war has delivered a dual shock to global supply chains through production decline and transit disruption, with Gulf crude oil output down approximately 60% (at time of writing). Infrastructure destruction prolongs recovery, while commodity shortages impacting packaging, fertilisers and electronics accelerate ally-shoring and alternative energy adoption. Consumers face price increases and volume decline, with stagflation posing the most significant structural risk.
Zora Milenkovic
Chart of the Month: Economic Impact of a Prolonged Iran War
30 Apr 26The US/Israel-Iran war has caused a major shift in global economic dynamics, driving oil prices higher and exposing vulnerabilities in energy-dependent economies. Our latest Chart of the Month looks at the projected impact of this war by country.
Aiste Bijune
Energy Shock Redefines Global Economic Resilience
22 Apr 26The US/Israel-Iran war has caused a major shift in global economic dynamics, driving oil prices higher and exposing vulnerabilities in energy-dependent economies. With the Strait of Hormuz – responsible for over a quarter of global oil exports – blocked, inflation and supply chain disruptions are spreading far beyond the Gulf. This crisis is deepening the divide between energy importers and exporters, prompting businesses and governments to reconsider resilience, competitiveness and long-term growth strategies.
Aiste Bijune
Building Resilience Amid Volatile Commodity Markets
2 Apr 26Commodity price volatility has become a structural feature of the global economy, driven by geopolitical tensions, climate shocks and rising demand for critical inputs. To stay competitive and protect continuity, businesses need to rethink their sourcing, supply chain design and risk management strategies.
Aiste Bijune