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Country Report

Tobacco in Indonesia

Aug 2011

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

About this Report

Samples (FAQs about samples):

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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in Indonesia with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in Indonesia, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Indonesia for free:

The Tobacco in Indonesia market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in Indonesia?
  • What are the major brands in Indonesia?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in Indonesia?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in Indonesia?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in Indonesia?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in Indonesia in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in Indonesia?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Sample Analysis

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Despite an anticipated decline, cigarettes registers stronger growth rate

An increase in excise tax in January 2010, a slower growth rate in 2009 and a government limit on production to 260 billion sticks by 2015 did not slow the growth of cigarettes in 2010. The category achieved slightly stronger volume growth than the previous year. Growth in actual volume terms was mainly down to the high tar category which accounts for the majority of sales. The increased prices of cigarettes did not lower consumption among smokers as volume sales were boosted by the increasing number of economy brands. With excise tax increasing year on year, cigarette prices subsequently rose, contributing to stronger value growth than that of the previous year.

Continued shift to ‘lighter’ high-tar cigarettes

Since the launch of A Mild back in 1989 and its phenomenal success, cigarettes has continued to see the robust growth of the ‘lighter’ high-tar category. The success of A Mild was followed by the launches of Star Mild, U Mild, X Mild, Clas Mild, LA Lights, Neo Mild, Avolution, Gudang Garam Signature Mild, Gudang Garam Surya Pro Mild, Envio Mild, Uno Mild, etc. These brands purposely carry the ‘mild’ name to indicate a lower- tar content, which is in the range of 10-15mg. These lighter high-tar brands portray the image of a modern lifestyle and are therefore readily accepted by younger people. Due to their lower tar content people are smoking more frequently, thus contributing to strong volume growth for this category. Major companies are focusing their sales, marketing and brand activities on this category rather than others.

Major manufacturers continue to achieve positive volume and value growth

The top five major cigarette manufacturers in Indonesia continued to post positive volume and value growth in 2010. The top five manufacturers in order of share in 2010 were Gudang Garam Tbk PT, HM Sampoerna Tbk PT (Philip Morris International), Djarum PT, Bentoel Internasional Investama Tbk PT (British American Tobacco Plc) and Nojorono Tobacco Indonesia PT. Bentoel Internasional Investama Tbk PT enjoyed the strongest growth following its acquisition by British American Tobacco. After the acquisition was completed, BAT Indonesia Tbk PT was dissolved to run under PT. Bentoel Internasional Investama Tbk. Benefited from this acquisition, brands owned by both PT Bentoel Internasional Investama Tbk PT and BAT Indonesia Tbk PT experienced tremendous growth in 2010, especially in the SKM (Sigaret Kretek Machine or machine- manufactured kretek cigarettes) and SPM (Sigaret Putih Mesin or machine-manufactured white cigarettes) categories. Given the heightened competition within lighter high-tar cigarettes, Gudang Garam Tbk PT and Djarum PT launched new products in the category such as Envio Mild (Djarum PT) and Gudang Garam Surya Pro (Gudang Garam Tbk PT).

Modern retailers account for a growing share of cigarette sales

Despite the dominance of traditional retailers in selling cigarettes across the nation, growing modern retailers such as supermarkets, hypermarkets and convenience stores (Alfamart, Indomaret, Circle K etc) have substantially gained share in cigarette distribution. Street vendors and newsagent-tobacconists/kiosks, however, continued to dominate in 2010 with a 79% share of retail volume sales. The market also witnessed growing numbers of bar-tobacconists, mainly in urban areas, selling cigars targeted at upper-income earners.

Slower volume growth anticipated over the forecast period

Tightening government regulations, annual excise tax increases and a government plan to limit cigarette production by 2015 are all anticipated to be major factors in a slowdown in growth for cigarettes over the forecast period. Volume growth is expected to reach 3% annually. The government roadmap for the tobacco industry over 2010-2015 will focus on (in order of priority): state revenue from excise tax, health and labour. The health aspect has risen to become the second priority compared to the roadmap of 2007-2010, when it ranked third. Along with the roadmap, the Ministry of Health is seeking to finalise the Rancangan Undang Undang (RUU) or draft bill on controlling the impact of tobacco products, which is expected to be issued by mid-2011. Despite this, however, the strong tobacco industry, which contributes significantly to the local economy in terms of taxes and employment, coupled with large tobacco companies with huge financial resources to lobby the government, will maintain positive growth over the forecast period.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in Indonesia - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Despite an anticipated decline, cigarettes registers stronger growth rate

Continued shift to ‘lighter’ high-tar cigarettes

Major manufacturers continue to achieve positive volume and value growth

Modern retailers account for a growing share of cigarette sales

Slower volume growth anticipated over the forecast period

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislative overview/ FCTC ratification

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

Fatwa Haram

Minimum legal smoking age

Smoking Prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Population 2005-2010
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2005-2010

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising & Sponsorship

Point-of-sale display bans

Smoking in public places

Low Ignition Propensity (LIP) regulation

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by Cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2005-2010

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Summary 2 Excise Rates of Tobacco Products 2010
  • Summary 3 Excise Rates of Imported Tobacco Products 2010
  • Summary 4 Excise Rates of Tobacco Products 2011
  • Summary 5 Excise Rates of Imported Tobacco Products 2011

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 4 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples 2010

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

  • Table 5 Production/Imports/Exports 2005-2010

Indonesian Kretek

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 6 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2005-2010

MARKET DATA

  • Table 7 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 8 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 9 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 10 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 11 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 12 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 13 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 14 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

DEFINITIONS

  • Summary 6 Research Sources

Tobacco in Indonesia - Company Profiles

Djarum PT in Tobacco (Indonesia)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 8 Djarum PT: Production Statistics 2010

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 9 Djarum PT: Competitive Position 2010

Gudang Garam Tbk PT in Tobacco (Indonesia)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 12 Gudang Garam Tbk PT: Production Statistics 2010

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 13 Gudang Garam Tbk PT: Competitive Position 2010

Sampoerna Tbk PT, HM in Tobacco (Indonesia)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 16 HM Sampoerna Tbk PT: Production Statistics 2010

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 17 HM Sampoerna Tbk PT: Competitive Position 2010

Taru Martani PT in Tobacco (Indonesia)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 19 Taru Martani PT: Production Statistics 2010

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 20 Taru Martani PT: Competitive Position 2010

Cigarettes in Indonesia - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • High-tar cigarettes continued to dominate in 2010, accounting for a 97% share of volume sales. There are two types of high-tar cigarettes in Indonesia – ‘heavier’ high-tar cigarettes and ‘lighter’ high-tar cigarettes. Heavier high-tar cigarettes include brands such as Djarum Super (32mg tar, 1.8mg nicotine), Gudang Garam Surya (30mg tar, 1.8mg nicotine), Gudang Garam Surya 12 Premium (32mg tar, 1.9mg nicotine) and Gudang Garam International (30mg tar, 1.8mg nicotine). Lighter high-tar cigarettes include brands such as A Mild (14mg tar, 1mg nicotine), Avolution (14mg tar, 1mg nicotine), Clas Mild (15mg tar, 1mg nicotine), LA Lights (15mg tar, 1mg nicotine), Star Mild (12mg tar, 0.9mg nicotine), X Mild (12mg tar, 1mg nicotine), Neo Mild (12mg tar, 1mg nicotine), Envio Mild (15mg tar, 1mg nicotine), Gudang Garam Surya Pro Mild (14mg tar, 1mg nicotine) and A Flava Click Mint (14mg tar, 1mg nicotine).

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • There were 4,793 tobacco and cigarette manufacturers in Indonesia in 2007, up from 3,217 in 2005 and 3,961 in 2006. However, a gradual decline has been witnessed in later years. In 2008, about 1,500-1,800 manufacturers closed down as a result of tightening monitoring from the excise tax authority. Many of the small-scale manufacturers did not meet the requirements of the regulations. In 2010, the number had declined to around 3,800 manufacturers, with 3,000 being in Eastern and Central Java. This is also due to the competition from major brands which started to produce economy cigarettes. Most of these cigarette manufacturers, however, are small-scale or home industry and distribute locally. These cigarette manufacturers are concentrated in Eastern Java, Central Java, Western Java, Northern Sumatra and West Nusa Tenggara. Many of these smaller-scale manufacturers produce hand-rolled cigarettes and therefore are not covered by Euromonitor International. The four major cigarette manufacturers in order of volume share in 2010 were Gudang Garam Tbk PT, HM Sampoerna Tbk PT, Djarum PT and Bentoel Internasional Investama Tbk PT (which merged with BAT Indonesia Tbk PT). These top four manufacturers accounted for a 68% share of total volume sales in 2010. Other major manufacturers include Philip Morris Indonesia PT which is a subsidiary of the publicly listed Philip Morris International Inc, which also owns HM Sampoerna Tbk PT. Djarum PT and Nojorono Tobacco Indonesia PT are privately-owned cigarette manufacturers. BAT Indonesia Tbk PT acquired majority ownership of local manufacturer Bentoel Internasional Investama Tbk PT in 2009, following in the footsteps of Philip Morris Indonesia PT, which acquired HM Sampoerna Tbk PT in 2005.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

2009 NPDs

2010 NPDs

  • Summary 21 Cigarettes - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Growth of cigarettes is expected to be mainly driven by lighter high-tar brands such as A Mild, Avolution, A Flava, Star Mild, X Mild, U Mild, LA Lights, Neo Mild, Gudang Garam Surya Pro Mild and Envio Mild, which will also gain share at the expense of traditional heavy high-tar cigarettes. The other category which is expected to register continuously strong growth is mid-tar cigarettes as consumers are shifting to lower-tar formats. Increasing health awareness and the initiatives of anti-smoking NGOs and the Ministry of Health to reduce smoking and its impact on public health will be the major factors inhibiting the growth of heavier high-tar cigarettes. Major manufacturers have also been focusing their brand innovations and marketing efforts on lighter high-tar cigarettes rather than other formats.

SECTOR BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: Price Bands

  • Summary 22 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: Menthol/standard

Cigarettes: Filter/non-filter

Cigarettes: Carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: Filter length

Cigarettes: Slims/superslims vs regular

Cigarettes: Pack size

Cigarettes: Pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 15 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 16 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 23 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 24 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 25 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2010
  • Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 27 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 28 Cigarettes Company Shares 2006-2010
  • Table 29 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2007-2010
  • Table 30 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 31 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 32 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 33 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 34 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015

Cigars in Indonesia - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • A tradition for cigars was brought to Indonesia by the Dutch a long time ago, primarily to Java Island. Ever since then cigars from Indonesia have been widely enjoyed by Western consumers in both the domestic and international markets. Cigars in Indonesia are mainly consumed by expatriates. A culture for cigar smoking, however, is increasingly being adopted by local consumers, particularly in upper-income groups, as smoking a cigar has become a status symbol.

HAND-MADE VERSUS MACHINE MANUFACTURED SPLITS

  • Table 45 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured 2005-2010

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The top four players in cigars and cigarillos in Indonesia are all domestic manufacturers, accounting for a 92% share of total volume sales in 2010. In order of share, they are Perkebunan Nasional X PT (48%), Taru Martani PT (20%), Djarum PT (13%) and Gelora Djaja PT (11%). All four saw an increase in their volume sales in 2010, benefiting from a rise in domestic demand.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 23 Cigars and Cigarillos - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • The cigars and cigarillos category is expected to post a healthy 6% constant value CAGR over the forecast period along with a retail volume CAGR of 5% to reach 16 million units by 2015. This performance will be down to an increasing number of people in urban areas starting to smoke cigars. Word-of-mouth recommendation among business networks and friends is still a powerful marketing tool, and combined with improved distribution will help to drive sales.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 46 Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 47 Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 48 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 49 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 50 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine Manufactured: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 51 Company Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2006-2010
  • Table 52 Brand Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2007-2010
  • Table 53 Company Shares of Cigarillos 2006-2010
  • Table 54 Brand Shares of Cigarillos 2007-2010
  • Table 55 Sales of Cigars by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 56 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 57 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 58 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 59 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Smokeless Tobacco in Indonesia - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Branded chewing tobacco and snuff continued to be non-existent in Indonesia in 2010 as the concept remains foreign to the majority of tobacco consumers. Among those who are educated about the concept, chewing tobacco is seen as a greater risk to health than cigarettes as it is placed within the mouth, in direct contact with internal body parts.

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Tobacco leaves used for chewing by older women are unbranded products prepared by small-scale Xhome industries.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

PROSPECTS

  • The prospects for chewing tobacco and snuff remain gloomy in Indonesia as the concept remains relatively alien to most smokers. The high costs related to product introduction are expected to be a strong deterrent to multinational companies wishing to import chewing tobacco products into the country.

Smoking Tobacco in Indonesia - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • RYO tobacco is widely known as tingwe, a Javanese abbreviation for linting dewe. It is also popularly known as tembakau rajang or shag tobacco. Famous brands of RYO tobacco such as Mars, Drum and Van Nelle use shag tobacco to define their products, which is printed on the packaging below the brand name. Historically, shag tobacco has a long presence in Indonesia, particularly on Java Island. RYO tobacco is traditional in most rural areas due to a presence in Javanese culture long before cigarettes were widely available.

The Role and Effect of Cannabis/Marijuana

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Taru Martani PT continued to dominate RYO tobacco in Indonesia in 2010 with a 68% share. After the discontinuation of the Drum and Van Nelle licence from Imperial Tobacco Group Plc in late 2009, the company launched two new brands of its own, namely Mundi Victor and Violin. These are aimed to replace Drum and Van Nelle but at much lower prices. The company’s other well-known brand is Country which is widely available in rural areas due to its low price.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

PROSPECTS

  • Smoking tobacco is expected to register a constant value CAGR of 2% over the forecast period to reach Rp36 billion by 2015, driven solely by RYO tobacco. Growth will be mainly down to the rising prices of cigarettes which will make them unaffordable, particularly to low-income rural dwellers. RYO tobacco will continue to offer a cheaper alternative to cigarettes.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 60 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 61 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 62 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 63 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 64 Company Shares of RYO Tobacco 2006-2010
  • Table 65 Brand Shares of RYO Tobacco 2007-2010
  • Table 66 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 67 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 68 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 69 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 70 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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