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Country Report

Tobacco in Pakistan

Nov 2011

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

About this Report

Samples (FAQs about samples):

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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in Pakistan with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in Pakistan, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Pakistan for free:

The Tobacco in Pakistan market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in Pakistan?
  • What are the major brands in Pakistan?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in Pakistan?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in Pakistan?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in Pakistan?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in Pakistan in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in Pakistan?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Sample Analysis

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Drop in volume sales

In 2010, Pakistan witnessed the worst floods since 1974, with one-fifth of the country affected, including the fertile tobacco-producing lands such as the Khyber Pakhtoon Khoah province. In addition, taxation, inflationary trends in other necessities and legislations such as on advertising, reduced volume sales of cigarettes in the country. To make matters worse for the manufacturers, many consumers especially from low-income groups shifted to the illicit products which resulted in reduced sales of legally manufactured brands.

Legislation, advertising and strategies

In 2010, legislations were brought about regarding the advertising of cigarettes, placing warnings on cigarette packs, sale of cigarettes to under-age consumers and restrictions on indoor smoking. The manufacturers dealt with this situation very carefully as they adopted strategies to incentivise retailers to promote their brands, increase point-of-sale marketing, and improve distribution strategies.

Value versus volume versus oligopoly

Tobacco in Pakistan is value-driven, whereby retail volume sales of cigarettes may have declined, but value sales significantly increased. The tobacco landscape is oligopolistic in nature with Pakistan Tobacco Co Ltd being the biggest player followed by Lakson Tobacco Co Ltd. Most of the volume and value is comprised of economy cigarettes which are primarily driven by low-income consumers. The drop in volume sales was mostly incurred by economy cigarettes, while premium category remained almost unaffected as its consumers belonged to high income groups. The share of cigarettes was maintained by the two largest companies while other small manufacturers and illicit trade also retained a minor share.

Legislation versus illicit trade

Tobacco has been a major source of revenue through tax generation, employment, and foreign exchange for Pakistan. The legislations introduced proved to be a threat to retail volumes of manufacturers, although they faced the sensitive situation and increased the value sales significantly due to rise of taxation. Legislations like advertising bands and taxation increased the demand of smuggled brands and despite strict checks allowed room for illicit trade.

Challenges versus opportunities over forecast period

While the Tobacco Control Cell (TCC) and Pakistan’s Ministry of Health continue to keep a watch on the implementation of legislations, their execution has been a challenge. However, manufacturers have followed the regulations by placing the pictorial warnings and steering clear of direct advertising. Similarly, hotels, shops and many restaurants have banned indoor smoking. These restrictions along with the floods of 2010 and increased unit prices due to taxation left the retail volume size to shrink considerably. Despite this challenging environment, tobacco in Pakistan is expected to grow over the forecast period. Retail volume as well as value sales are expected to rise by 2015, and additional varieties, innovation and new product developments is likely to be introduced.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in Pakistan - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Drop in volume sales

Legislation, advertising and strategies

Value versus volume versus oligopoly

Legislation versus illicit trade

Challenges versus opportunities over forecast period

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislative overview/ FCTC ratification

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

Country-specific legislation:

Smoking Prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2005-2010
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2005-2010

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising & Sponsorship

Point-of-sale Display Bans

Smoking in public places

Low Ignition Propensity (LIP) regulation

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by Cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2005-2010

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Table 4 Taxation and Duty Levies 2005-2010

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 5 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

  • Table 6 Production/Imports/Exports 2005-2010

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 7 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2005-2010

MARKET DATA

  • Table 8 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 9 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 10 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 11 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 12 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 13 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 14 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 15 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

DEFINITIONS

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Tobacco in Pakistan - Company Profiles

Khyber Tobacco Co Ltd in Tobacco (Pakistan)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

Lakson Tobacco Co Ltd in Tobacco (Pakistan)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 7 Lakson Tobacco Co Ltd: Production Statistics 2010

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 8 Lakson Tobacco Co Ltd: Competitive Position 2010

Pakistan Tobacco Co Ltd in Tobacco (Pakistan)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 11 Pakistan Tobacco Co Ltd: Production Statistics 2010

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 12 Pakistan Tobacco Co Ltd: Competitive Position 2010

Cigarettes in Pakistan - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • In 2010, retail volume sales declined in Pakistan by 10% in comparison to the 1% decline in 2009. This was primarily due to increase in prices; natural disasters (particularly the floods that affected one-fifth of Pakistan including Khyber PakhtunKhwa province; a prime geographical region for tobacco yield); as well as inflationary pressures on other necessities. Increase in prices primarily affected the economy-grade cigarettes that fall under mid tar level and cater to the lowest-income consumers. On the other hand, the impact on premium brands (which constitute of low or high tar levels) due to the increased prices was relatively less, as these consumers were less price-sensitive.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • There are two main players within cigarettes in Pakistan: Pakistan Tobacco Co Ltd (PTC) and Lakson Tobacco Co Ltd (LTC). PTC is a subsidiary of British American Tobacco Plc while LTC is owned by Philip Morris International Inc. PTC held 53% retail volume share in 2010, while LTC accounted for 45% share of retail volume sales in 2010. The two companies supply cigarettes in each of the three segments: high tar, medium tar and low tar cigarettes. The remaining share is held by other local manufacturers producing low quality economy cigarettes catering to consumers in rural areas.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 13 Cigarettes - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Even though the existing economic and socio-political environment in the country has been going through turmoil due to on-going terrorism, and recent flood disasters, volume sales of cigarettes are expected to grow over the forecast period by a 2% CAGR and reach over 74.3 billion sticks by 2015. An increase in the population of Pakistan in absolute terms is one of the key reasons towards this growth.

SECTOR BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: Price Bands

  • Summary 14 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: Menthol/standard

Cigarettes: Filter/non-filter

Cigarettes: Carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: Filter length

Cigarettes: Slims/superslims vs regular

Cigarettes: Pack size

Cigarettes: Pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 16 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 23 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 24 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 25 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2010
  • Table 27 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 28 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 29 Cigarettes Company Shares 2006-2010
  • Table 30 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2007-2010
  • Table 31 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 32 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 33 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 34 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 45 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015

Cigars in Pakistan - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Sales of cigars are very limited in Pakistan. Products tend to be imported from different parts of the world. However, there is no specific legislation against the sales of cigars.

Smokeless Tobacco in Pakistan - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • The consumption of smokeless tobacco in Pakistan developed from the ancient South Asian tradition of using betel nuts. Initially, Pakistanis mainly consumed paan, although gutkha subsequently appeared. This was an unpackaged product that was handmade from a mixture of betel nuts and tobacco. During the 1990s, gutkha began appearing in sachets of 20-50 g. Consumption of gutkha was very widespread in those areas of Pakistan where the majority of Indian emigrants settled after the split from India in 1947, especially Sindh province. Naswar, another type of chewing tobacco, was also heavily popular. Naswar is largely available unpacked and tends to be manufactured either at home or in small factories operating illegally.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 46 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 47 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 48 Sales of Smokless Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010

Smoking Tobacco in Pakistan - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Pakistan currently has a high prevalence of tobacco usage. The use of cigarettes is high throughout the country both in rural and urban areas. The use of unbranded ‘hookah’ in the rural areas has been high and still prevails. The tobacco used in these areas is unprocessed tobacco. However, the country has been witnessing a renewed surge in water-pipe smoking in the form of ‘sheehsa’ among both young men and women in urban locations. In addition, there appears to be greater social acceptability of this practice than there is of cigarette smoking or any other form of tobacco use.

The Role and Effect of Cannabis/Marijuana

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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