You are here: HomeSolutionsIndustriesTobacco
print my pages

Country Report

Tobacco in Pakistan

Jan 2013

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Volume sales continue to drop

Cigarette volume sales in Pakistan continued to drop in 2011 as the sale of illicit cigarettes and rising awareness of health risks associated with smoking continued to hamper growth of legal sales. Another substitute for cigarettes that recorded an increase in demand in 2011 was water pipe (‘sheesha’), which is especially popular among younger 18-25 year-olds. Additionally, high taxation, inflation, unemployment and slow economic growth in 2011 reduced purchasing power, mainly amongst the large number of low-income consumers.

New legislation takes effect

In 2011, previously passed legislation regarding the minimum pack size of cigarettes and sale of cigarettes to under-age consumers and restrictions on smoking in public spaces was implemented. Despite the attempts of lobbying groups to delay implementation to 2013, the government delivered on its promise to put these basic laws into action by enforcing fines on non-compliance. Despite this action, due to a weak legal system and high levels of corruption, the impact of the new legislation is likely to be limited.

Sales leaders face shrinking bottom-lines

Tobacco in Pakistan is oligopolistic in nature, with Pakistan Tobacco (owned by British American Tobacco) and Phillip Morris (Pakistan) (owned by Philip Morris International) continuing to dominate sales in 2011. Higher costs, mainly due to rising energy prices and inflation, and a drop in volume sales caused both players to experience a decline in profit margins in 2011, with Philip Morris (Pakistan) returning a loss for the first nine months of 2011.

Rising illicit trade sales

High taxation and prices are resulting in lower margins for retailers and distributors and are increasing the scope for the sale of illicit cigarettes, which provide higher profits for these players. A lack of strong implementation of laws on the part of the government has left the legal market defenceless against illegal players. The focus of the government’s policy seems to be on reducing overall consumption of tobacco products and regulating usage amongst under-age groups as opposed to ensuring that only legal products are sold. Even though the tobacco industry is a significant source of tax revenue for the government, law enforcement agencies have failed to protect this source of income.

Challenges expected for forecast period

The tobacco industry faces a two-pronged challenge over the forecast period. The first is the enforcement of anti-smoking laws and falling demand as a result of high taxation and new anti-tobacco legislation. On the other hand, the increased popularity and limited regulation of alternatives in the form of illicit cigarettes and water pipes is also threatening growth of legal tobacco sales. However, the economic revival of the country and increased spending power of consumers means that tobacco volume sales should increase over the forecast period.


Samples (FAQs about samples):

doc_pdf.png Sample Tobacco Market Research Report

doc_excel_table.png Sample Tobacco Data

Delivery: Files are delivered directly into your account within a few minutes of purchase.

Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in Pakistan with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in Pakistan, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Pakistan for free:

The Tobacco in Pakistan market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in Pakistan?
  • What are the major brands in Pakistan?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in Pakistan?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in Pakistan?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in Pakistan?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in Pakistan in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in Pakistan?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in Pakistan - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Volume sales continue to drop

New legislation takes effect

Sales leaders face shrinking bottom-lines

Rising illicit trade sales

Challenges expected for forecast period

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

LEGISLATION

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

Country-specific legislation:

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2006-2011
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2006-2011

Advertising & sponsorship

Point-of-sale display bans

Smoking in public places

Low ignition propensity (LIP) regulation

‘Reduced harm’

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2007-2011

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Table 4 Taxation and Duty Levies 2006-2011

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 5 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

  • Table 6 Trade Statistics – Million Sticks 2006-2010

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 7 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2006-2011

MARKET DATA

  • Table 8 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 9 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 10 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 11 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 12 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 13 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 14 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 15 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

DEFINITIONS

SOURCES

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Tobacco in Pakistan - Company Profiles

Khyber Tobacco Co Ltd in Tobacco (Pakistan)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

Pakistan Tobacco Co Ltd in Tobacco (Pakistan)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 6 Pakistan Tobacco Co Ltd: Production Statistics 2011

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 7 Pakistan Tobacco Co Ltd: Competitive Position 2011

Phillip Morris (Pakistan) Ltd in Tobacco (Pakistan)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 10 Phillip Morris (Pakistan) Ltd: Production Statistics 2011

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 11 Phillip Morris (Pakistan) Ltd: Competitive Position 2011

Cigarettes in Pakistan - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Cigarettes retail volume sales fell by 5% in Pakistan in 2011 – a lower drop than the -10% recorded in 2010. As the country recovers from the 2010 floods and the economic downturn, consumers have seen an increase in their spending power and increased accessibility due to improving supply. However, this turn in fortunes was not enough to stop the fall in sales of legal cigarettes as consumers have a wide range of illegal products easily available to them, with such products typically being cheaper priced and offering higher quality (imported brands)

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • There are two main players within cigarettes in Pakistan: Pakistan Tobacco Co Ltd (PTC) and Philip Morris (Pakistan) Ltd (PMP). PTC is a subsidiary of British American Tobacco Plc while PMP is owned by Philip Morris International Inc. PTC recorded a retail volume share of 55% in 2011 while PMP accounted for 43% of retail volume sales. The two companies supply cigarettes within the high tar, medium tar and low tar cigarettes areas. The remaining sales share is held by other local manufacturers producing low quality economy cigarettes targeted at consumers in rural areas.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Cigarettes has a projected forecast period retail volume CAGR of 2%, with sales set to reach over 79.2 billion sticks by 2016. This is in line with the hopes of manufacturers that the government will be able to curb illegal cigarettes sales and help them to recover lost sales share. Better economic conditions in the future and higher purchasing power are also key drivers of this growth.

CATEGORY BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: price bands

  • Summary 12 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: menthol/standard

Flavour threads and capsule filters:

Cigarettes: filter/non-filter

Cigarettes: carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: filter length

Cigarettes: regular vs slims vs superslims

Cigarettes: pack size

Cigarettes: pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 16 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 23 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 24 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 25 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2007-2011
  • Table 27 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 28 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 29 Cigarettes Company Shares 2007-2011
  • Table 30 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2008-2011
  • Table 31 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 32 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 33 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 34 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 45 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016

Cigars in Pakistan - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Sales of cigars are very limited in Pakistan, especially when considering the size of the smoking population in the country. Products tend to be imported from different parts of the world. However, there is no specific legislation against sales of cigars. The majority of cigar smokers are men over the age of 30, including both cigarette smokers and non-cigarette smokers. The sale and consumption of cigars remains unaffected by anti-cigarette smoking legislation.

HAND-MADE VERSUS MACHINE MANUFACTURED SPLITS

  • Table 46 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-made: % Volume/Value Breakdown 2007-2011

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • SS Alliance International is the exclusive distributor of Habanos in Pakistan. Cohiba and Montecristo, two brands offered by Habanos, accounted for 20% of retail volume sales in 2011. However, the area remains highly fragmented.

New product developments

Distribution

PROSPECTS

  • Growth rates are forecasted to fall over the forecast period as the area matures and distribution via retailers and cigar lounges reaches saturation. Retail volume sales are projected to increase at an average annual rate of 8% to reach 0.88 million units by 2016.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 47 Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 48 Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 49 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 50 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 51 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 52 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Value Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 53 Company Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2007-2011
  • Table 54 Brand Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2008-2011
  • Table 55 Sales of Cigars by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 56 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 57 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 58 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 59 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Smokeless Tobacco in Pakistan - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Consumption of smokeless tobacco in Pakistan developed from the ancient South Asian tradition of using betel nuts. Initially, Pakistanis mainly consumed paan, although gutkha subsequently appeared. This was an unpackaged product that was handmade from a mixture of betel nuts and tobacco. During the 1990s, gutkha began appearing in sachets of 20-50g. Consumption of gutkha was very widespread in those areas of Pakistan where the majority of Indian emigrants settled after the split from India in 1947, especially Sindh province. Naswar, another type of chewing tobacco, was also widely popular. Naswar is largely available unpacked and tends to be manufactured either at home or in small factories operating illegally.

Smoking Tobacco in Pakistan - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Pakistan currently has a high prevalence of tobacco usage. The use of cigarettes is high throughout the country, both in rural and urban areas. The use of unbranded ‘hookah’ in rural areas has been high and still prevails. The tobacco smoked in these areas is unprocessed. However, the country has been witnessing a renewed surge in water-pipe smoking in the form of ‘sheehsa’ among both young men and women in urban locations. In addition, there appears to be greater social acceptance of this practice than there is of cigarette smoking or any other form of tobacco use despite recent attempts by anti-tobacco campaigners to outline the harmful effects of sheesha smoking in the media.

The role and effect of cannabis/marijuana

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim/superslim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

my pages

Want to find out more about this report?

If you purchase a report that is updated in the next 60 days, we will send you the new edition of the report and the data extract FREE!