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Country Report

Tobacco in the US

Aug 2012

Price: US$1,900

About this Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Cigarette category continues downward trajectory in the US

Cigarette volume sales continued to decline in the US in 2011 in spite of tax and manufacturer-driven value increases over the year. The decline in sales was the result of migration to other tobacco products and reduced overall consumption among cigarette consumers. Cigarette prices will likely continue to be prohibitively high as state and local governments seek to extract additional revenue and lower health care spending. Additionally, indoor and outdoor smoking bans have been enacted and extended at local and regional level, further restricting the legal smoking environment in the US.

Manufacturers continue to invest in smokeless tobacco

Smokeless tobacco experienced strong growth in 2011 as cigarette volumes continued to decline due to prohibitive taxes and smoking bans, with companies promoting moist snuff and Swedish-style snus as alternatives. In 2011, major cigarette manufacturers Philip Morris USA (Altria Group) and Reynolds Tobacco Co (Reynolds American Inc) continued to heavily invest in moist snuff and Swedish snus, with increased promotional activity and new product innovation.

Taxes alter the smoking tobacco landscape

The high federal tax increases on certain categories of tobacco greatly altered numerous areas of the market as retailers and manufacturers attempted to find ways to minimise losses from the tax increase. Pipe tobacco volumes skyrocketed thanks to its relative cheapness in comparison to RYO tobacco and newer, thinly cut pipe tobacco blends that could be used for rolling cigarettes. Cigars, meanwhile, shifted format and weight to avoid being placed in a higher taxation bracket.

Regulatory future of cigarettes still unclear

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) continues to attempt to exercise its new regulatory authority over the US tobacco industry. In February 2012, the graphic labels introduced by the FDA were ruled unconstitutional by a US district court, and are pending further judicial review in the appellate court. Furthermore, the potential for a ban on menthol cigarettes remains a possibility, despite the FDA’s decision not to act on the recent recommendation of a ban by its scientific advisory committee. A full independent report on menthol cigarettes will be submitted for public comment in 2012, with the possibility of FDA action to follow.

Cigar growth flattens as machine-made sales fade slightly

The US cigar category continues to be dominated by machine-made cigars, but unlike the previous year machine-made cigars were not able to stimulate growth in 2011. The movement toward single foil wrapped cigarillos was largely diminished by softer volumes of traditionally defined “little cigars”. In addition, premium handmade cigars continued to face pressure due to a sluggish economic recovery.


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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in USA with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in USA, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in USA for free:

The Tobacco in USA market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in USA?
  • What are the major brands in USA?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in USA?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in USA?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in USA?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in USA in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in USA?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in the US - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Cigarette category continues downward trajectory in the US

Manufacturers continue to invest in smokeless tobacco

Taxes alter the smoking tobacco landscape

Regulatory future of cigarettes still unclear

Cigar growth flattens as machine-made sales fade slightly

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

LEGISLATION

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

FDA considers menthol ban

Minimum legal smoking age

Smoking prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2006-2011
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2006-2011

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising & sponsorship

Point-of-sale display bans

Smoking in public places

Low ignition propensity (LIP) regulation

‘Reduced harm’

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2006-2011

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Table 4 Taxation and Duty Levies 2006-2011

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 5 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 6 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2006-2011

MARKET DATA

  • Table 7 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 8 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 9 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 10 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 11 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 12 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 13 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 14 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

DEFINITIONS

SOURCES

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Tobacco in the US - Company Profiles

Lorillard Tobacco Co in Tobacco (USA)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

  • Summary 5 Lorillard Tobacco Co: Production Statistics 2011

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 6 Lorillard Tobacco Co: Competitive Position 2011

Philip Morris USA Inc in Tobacco (USA)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 9 Philip Morris USA Inc: Competitive Position 2011

RJ Reynolds Tobacco Co in Tobacco (USA)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 12 RJ Reynolds Tobacco Co: Competitive Position 2011

Cigarettes in the US - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Volumes sales of cigarettes continued to decline in 2011, registering a 3% drop. This continued the downward trend seen in 2009, when volumes decreased by 9%, due to historic increases in tobacco taxation. The Children’s Health Insurance Program Reauthorization Act of 2009 (CHIPRA) increased the federal excise tax on cigarettes to fund the State Children’s Health Insurance Program (SCHIP). The federal excise tax increased from US$0.39 to US$1.01 per pack of 20 cigarettes in April 2009, prompting the sharpest decline yet felt in the industry as consumers sought alternative forms of tobacco or quit smoking altogether. In addition, numerous states and municipalities adopted additional cigarette taxes, such as Illinois, which more than doubled its tax rate on cigarettes in 2012, raising it from US$0.98 to US$1.98.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The US cigarette industry is highly consolidated, with the top three players accounting for a combined volume share of 86% in 2011. Philip Morris was the clear leader with a category volume share of 46%, followed by RJ Reynolds with 27% and Lorillard with 13%. Some analysts have argued that FDA regulation and increased federal restrictions have given Philip Morris a competitive advantage as the company has the largest marketing and advertising budget in the industry. In August 2009, both Lorillard and RJ Reynolds sued to block the marketing restrictions that the FDA had put in place earlier in the year. This case was settled in March 2012 with a majority of the FDA regulations being upheld.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 13 Cigarettes: New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Volume sales of cigarettes are expected to continue to decline over the forecast period by an annual average of 1%. Cigarettes have historically been dubbed “recession proof”, or at least “recession-resistant”, as a portion of the population is expected to continue smoking regardless of the cost or the economic outlook. However, due to the health risks involved with smoking and the added efforts of associations such as the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids and the American Lung Association to educate the public about the harmful effects of tobacco use, volume sales are expected to continue declining. In addition, further tobacco tax increases at federal and state level, along with smoking bans, will pose even greater obstacles to growth over the forecast period. Value sales are forecast to grow at a CAGR of 2% between 2011 and 2016, reaching US$98 billion at constant 2011 prices.

CATEGORY BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: Price bands

  • Summary 14 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: Menthol/standard

Flavour threads and capsule filters

Cigarettes: Filter/non-filter

Cigarettes: Carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: Filter length

Cigarettes: Regular vs slims vs superslims

Cigarettes: Pack size

Cigarettes: Pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 15 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 16 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 23 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 24 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 25 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2007-2011
  • Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 27 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 28 Cigarettes Company Shares 2007-2011
  • Table 29 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2008-2011
  • Table 30 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 31 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 32 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 33 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 34 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016

Cigars in the US - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Cigars have a long history in the US, with the stereotypical public image of cigars tending to be of premium hand-rolled products, often from the Dominican Republic or Cuba (although the latter have been illegal in the US since the 1960s), smoked by powerful, wealthy and usually older men. This perception changed somewhat in the 1990s as the cigar fad attracted women and younger adults alike to try higher-quality cigars. In reality, machine-made cigars and cigarillos account for the bulk of the category’s volume sales, and tend to be purchased by a younger, less affluent demographic, and do not possess the same status as their premium counterparts. Overall, cigar smoking is still far more popular among men than women, although women have shown growing interest in recent years.

HANDMADE VERSUS MACHINE-MANUFACTURED SPLITS

  • Table 45 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-made: % Volume/Value Breakdown 2007-2011

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The US cigar category remained quite consolidated in 2011, with the top four companies accounting for 75% of total volume sales. Swisher International continued to hold the leading position with a volume share of 34%, mainly due to its strength in machine-manufactured standard and small cigars and cigarillos available on the mass market. Altadis USA was the second leading player with a volume share of 23%, followed by John Middleton Inc with a share of 11% and Swedish Match North America with 7%.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 15 Cigars - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Cigars is expected to post a CAGR of 1% in volume terms over 2011-2016 to reach 12,545 million units. Cigarillos is predicted to be the fastest growing category, growing by an annual average of 2%, while cigars excluding cigarillos will register a CAGR of 1%. Growth in the large and standard cigar categories will be somewhat slower, at less than 1% annually, as handmade manufacturers will find it harder to increase prices and may be forced to compromise on tobacco quality in order to keep prices low. There will be no imminent return to the cigar boom of the late 1990s, with value sales of large cigars increasing at a CAGR of only 1% over the forecast period.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 46 Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 47 Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 48 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 49 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 50 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 51 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured: % Value Breakdown 2006-2011
  • Table 52 Company Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2007-2011
  • Table 53 Brand Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2008-2011
  • Table 54 Company Shares of Cigarillos 2007-2011
  • Table 55 Brand Shares of Cigarillos 2008-2011
  • Table 56 Sales of Cigars by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 57 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 58 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 59 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 60 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Smokeless Tobacco in the US - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Smokeless tobacco has been present in the US since the earliest days of the country’s founding. Native Americans and early settlers cultivated and traded chewing tobacco, which remained the most prevalent type of tobacco in the US until the early 20th century, when cigarettes became more widespread. US-style moist snuff arose from the snus product brought over by Swedish settlers during the 19th century, and is now the most common form of smokeless tobacco in the US. Dry snuff was similarly brought to the US by European settlers, but has now fallen to a more niche status.

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Altria Group Inc-owned US Smokeless Tobacco Co led smokeless tobacco in 2011 with 44% of volume sales. The company is well-established in the US-style moist snuff category and owns the premium brands Copenhagen and Skoal, along with the value-priced Red Seal and Husky brands. Upon acquiring US Smokeless Tobacco in 2009, Philip Morris discontinued the US-style moist snuff brand Rooster to concentrate on “growth” brands. The company also holds a leading position in the dry snuff category, with the Bruton brand accounting for 27% of volume sales. Other major players include Reynolds American-owned American Snuff Co, accounting for 29% of smokeless tobacco volume sales, and Swedish Match North America, accounting for 16%.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 16 Smokeless Tobacco - New Product Launches

PROSPECTS

  • Smokeless tobacco is set to post a volume CAGR of 3% between 2011 and 2016, with the conversion of former smokers driving volumes to 67,038 tonnes. Value sales are also expected to increase at a CAGR of 6% in constant terms to reach US$8,959 million. The high cost of cigarettes and a renewed marketing focus on smokeless products will contribute to these increases.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 61 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 62 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 63 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 64 Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 65 Company Shares of Smokeless Tobacco 2007-2011
  • Table 66 Brand Shares of Smokeless Tobacco 2008-2011
  • Table 67 Sales of Smokless Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 68 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 69 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 70 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 71 Forecast Sales of Smokeless Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Smoking Tobacco in the US - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Pipe smoking has a long history in the US, with the habit being more common among the elderly. The practice was more popular in the early-to-mid 20th century, before cigarette smoking became widespread, and volume sales continued to suffer in the early part of the review period. RYO tobacco products have also enjoyed a longstanding presence in the US. Like other smoking tobacco products, however, they have slipped out of the mainstream as filtered machine-made cigarettes have become standard. Although smoking tobacco has traditionally been viewed as an inexpensive alternative to cigarettes, more recently RYO tobacco companies have begun marketing stronger, higher-quality blends to appeal to a more discerning audience.

The Role and Effect of Cannabis/Marijuana

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Scandinavian Tobacco Group subsidiary Lane Ltd was the leading player in smoking tobacco in 2011 with a volume share of 10%. Its leading position is due in part to the fact that it is the only player with a significant presence in both RYO and pipe tobacco, holding a volume share of 26% in RYO and 5% in pipe tobacco. Lane’s Bugler RYO tobacco holds the leading brand volume share of 13% within RYO tobacco, while its Captain Black brand holds the leading brand volume share within pipe tobacco, of 3%. Scandinavian Tobacco Group (STG) acquired Lane Ltd from Reynolds in March 2011, with all smoking tobacco brands transferring ownership.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 17 Smoking Tobacco - New Product Launches

PROSPECTS

  • Volume sales of smoking tobacco are expected to decline by around 1% over the forecast period to 15,779 tonnes, with fairly strong value growth of 11% between 2011 and 2016. While 2011 continued to witness a migration to pipe tobacco, this loophole primarily served to change the purchases of committed smoking tobacco users. While pipe tobacco will experience relatively strong growth, these gains will be largely offset by a decline of 37% in volume sales of RYO between 2011 and 2016. This forecast is, however, subject to legislative changes which may take place in the short term.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 72 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2006-2011
  • Table 73 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 74 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 75 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 76 Company Shares of RYO Tobacco 2007-2011
  • Table 77 Brand Shares of RYO Tobacco 2008-2011
  • Table 78 Company Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2007-2011
  • Table 79 Brand Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2008-2011
  • Table 80 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
  • Table 81 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2011-2016
  • Table 82 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 83 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 84 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim/superslim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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