Airline passenger numbers will continue to recover throughout the forecast period, but they will not exceed their pre-pandemic level until 2027. In light of the instability that characterised the latter part of the review period, consumers are likely to demand more flexible tickets.
Medium-haul flights of less than five hours are set to recover at a faster pace than long-haul ones to North America and Europe, with rising energy costs set to play a role in this. One consequence of this will be that the retail constant value sales of airlines will recover at a slower pace than passenger numbers: Even at the end of the forecast period, retail constant value sales will remain slightly below their pre-pandemic level.
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Airlines covers sales made to country residents (outbound and domestic tourists) and excludes sales to incoming tourists. Please note that airlines sales made to country residents when they are travelling abroad or through foreign websites or apps are also included and will be considered under the country of residence. The total amount paid for a flight after taxes and other charges is included. The return flight leg is included as well as the total amount paid for a flight ticket. Value sales exclude all forms of transit. Euromonitor International considers airline capacity and passengers carried in terms of enplanement based on scheduled flights. A passenger whose flight stops mid-route to pick up more passengers but continues with the same aircraft/flight number would be counted as one enplanement. A passenger who switches flights to another airline or aircraft with a new flight number mid-journey would be considered as two enplanements. Enplanements are not the same as number of seats sold or seat bookings, as the latter both include all bookings and do not exclude no-shows and cancellations. Direct transit passengers are excluded, eg those who continue on the same flight. Other transit passengers are included where passengers change plane with a new flight number. Air passengers carried relate directly to air value sales, where domestic and outbound travellers are only included. As such value and volume data in both sizes and shares is aligned and exclude the inbound component.See All of Our Definitions
This report originates from Passport, our Airlines research and analysis database.
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