In 2021, airline travel is expected to return to current value growth, following the significant decline of 2020, All the same, value sales are expected to be well below pre pandemic levels and recovery for the airlines will be slow. In fact, value sales are only expected to register single-digit growth.
Air connectivity is still significantly reduced in 2021, due to continued high COVID-19 infection rates. Moreover, the Thai government stopped night flying from 11pm-4am from April.
The number and frequency of routes will recover slowly, as passengers will remain cautious about international travel, especially early in the forecast period. Many airlines will initially operate with fewer airplanes and routes, at least until more consumers decide it is safe and affordable to consider air travel.
Unlike large-scale carriers that focus on long-haul routes, holiday and charter flights that cater to holiday destinations popular with tourists should recover more quickly. Many such airlines are closely linked to package holiday sales from key source markets such as Germany, France and the UK.
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Airlines covers sales made to country residents (outbound and domestic tourists) and excludes sales to incoming tourists. Please note that airlines sales made to country residents when they are travelling abroad or through foreign websites or apps are also included and will be considered under the country of residence. The total amount paid for a flight after taxes and other charges is included. The return flight leg is included as well as the total amount paid for a flight ticket. Value sales exclude all forms of transit. Euromonitor International considers airline capacity and passengers carried in terms of enplanement based on scheduled flights. A passenger whose flight stops mid-route to pick up more passengers but continues with the same aircraft/flight number would be counted as one enplanement. A passenger who switches flights to another airline or aircraft with a new flight number mid-journey would be considered as two enplanements. Enplanements are not the same as number of seats sold or seat bookings, as the latter both include all bookings and do not exclude no-shows and cancellations. Direct transit passengers are excluded, eg those who continue on the same flight. Other transit passengers are included where passengers change plane with a new flight number. Air passengers carried relate directly to air value sales, where domestic and outbound travellers are only included. As such value and volume data in both sizes and shares is aligned and exclude the inbound component.See All of Our Definitions
This report originates from Passport, our Airlines research and analysis database.
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