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Country Report

Tobacco in Estonia

Jul 2011

Price: $1,900

About this Report

About this Report

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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Tobacco industry in Estonia with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Tobacco industry in Estonia, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

When you purchase this report, you also get the data and the content from these category reports in Estonia for free:

The Tobacco in Estonia market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports by origin, exports by destination
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Tobacco in Estonia?
  • What are the major brands in Estonia?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market is the largest by value sales in Estonia?
  • Which sector of the tobacco products market has been growing the fastest, by volume and value, in Estonia?
  • Which sector is the most heavily taxed in Estonia?
  • Which companies dominate in the total tobacco market in Estonia in terms of market share?
  • What is the distribution channel split for the tobacco products market in Estonia?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Sample Analysis

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Retail value sales outperform retail volume sales in cigarettes

Retail volume sales saw modest decline in 2010 in Estonia and retail value sales saw slight increase. Unit prices were growing even during the years of recession due to excise tax increases in order to accumulate more income to state budget, therefore this led consumers to trade down to less expensive products. Trading down in price levels continued in 2010 as well. No big changes took place in the tobacco industry as companies were busy with preparations to implement euro in January 2011 as the new currency for Estonia replacing krone.

Illicit trade is under control

Illegal trade declined significantly in 2010 compared to 2009, as the Estonian Tax and Custom Board is doing hard work on policing state borders. Confiscated contraband cigarettes volume were smaller in 2010 compared to 2009. The largest illicit trade area is Ida-Virumaa, in northeast Estonia, near the porous Russian border. However, it is not expected that illicit trade would continue declining in 2011, on contrary – it is predicted that it will increase marginally, because excise rates are increased and cigarettes in neighbouring Russia are as little as one sixth the price. This is the main factor promoting price-cautious consumers to switch from legal market to illicit trade.

Competition remains intense

Competition is still very intense in Estonia, because no major movements in value shares took place in 2010. Meanwhile the number of smokers in Estonia continues to decline and unit prices are increasing. However, no aggressive fight over the value shares took place in 2010 and companies were busy with loads of extra work related to implementing the euro. Therefore, new product developments stayed very modest in 2010 – a few new products were introduced and some new packaging was launched.

Positive value sales growth expected

Industry representatives are expecting Estonian economy to recover from the economic crisis, but private-category debt is very high in Estonia and it might have a negative impact on Estonians’ purchasing power over the forecast period. Estonia joined the Eurozone on 1 January 2011, which led to a rapid increase in prices and higher inflation. It is likely that during the forecast period Estonia will suffer from high inflation, which will have a negative impact on all market participants. This will have negative impact on retail volume sales in the future, but retail value sales are expected to see positive growth, however real growth will be minor, as the biggest share of price increases will go to inflation or excise tax.

Tobacco industry players are getting more attention

Antismoking lobby groups are organising aggressive campaigns to influence smokers to quit, which is leading to more intense competition among the players in the tobacco industry. Further excise tax increases are planned to be introduced and many other further legislative restrictions are under debate by different interest groups. Estonia’s neighbour Finland is set to implement the ban on display of tobacco products at the beginning of 2012, leading Estonia to broader debate over point-of-sale restrictions. This would trigger industry players to be very innovative in order to communicate their products to consumers and follow the regulations at the same time.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Tobacco in Estonia - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Retail value sales outperform retail volume sales in cigarettes

Illicit trade is under control

Competition remains intense

Positive value sales growth expected

Tobacco industry players are getting more attention

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislative overview/FCTC ratification

  • Summary 1 Legislation Summary at a Glance

COUNTRY-SPECIFIC LEGISLATION

Minimum legal smoking age

Smoking Prevalence

  • Table 1 Smoking Prevalence in Adult Population 2005-2010
  • Table 2 Number of Smokers by Gender 2005-2010

Tar levels

Health warnings

Advertising & Sponsorship

Point-of-sale display bans

Smoking in public places

Low Ignition Propensity (LIP) regulation

Electronic cigarettes

Litigation

Death by Cause

  • Table 3 Death by Cause 2005-2010

TAXATION AND PRICING

Duty paid packet marks

Taxation rates

  • Table 4 Taxation and Duty Levies 2005-2010

Average cigarette pack price breakdown

  • Table 5 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples 2010

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

  • Table 6 Trade Statistics – Cigarettes 2005-2010

Illicit trade in cigarettes

MARKET INDICATORS

  • Table 7 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes by Volume 2005-2010

MARKET DATA

  • Table 8 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 9 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 10 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 11 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 12 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 13 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 14 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 15 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

DEFINITIONS

  • Summary 2 Research Sources

Tobacco in Estonia - Company Profiles

Eugesta Eesti AS in Tobacco (Estonia)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 5 Eugesta Eesti AS: Competitive Position 2010

Philip Morris Eesti OÜ in Tobacco (Estonia)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

  • Summary 8 Philip Morris Eesti OÜ: Competitive Position 2010

Rasa Trading Company AS in Tobacco (Estonia)

STRATEGIC DIRECTION

KEY FACTS

COMPANY BACKGROUND

PRODUCTION

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING

Cigarettes in Estonia - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • The years of 2009 and 2010 were an adaptation period for tobacco consumers and also retailers. Consumers had to adapt to increasing unit prices, the variable economy and continuous aggressive quitting campaigns that led consumers to move to lower tar and more affordable products. Retailers adapted to the changed market situation by reducing companies’ costs and trying to retain their market positions.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Cigarettes in Estonia is shared by four main companies – Philip Morris Eesti OÜ held 47% volume share, Japanese Tobacco International (represented by Eugesta Eesti AS) 24%, British American Tobacco Estonia 18% and Tremaco OÜ (representing Imperial Tobacco Estonia OÜ) held 8% volume share. Philip Morris Eesti OÜ outperforms its competitors and holds a dominating position within cigarettes, as it is marketing its global flagship brands and the company’s products are present in all price levels, which results in a wide potential consumer base.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 11 Cigarettes - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • Retail volume sales are expected to record a healthy growth of 1% over the forecast period in Estonia. According to Euromonitor International’s forecasts, in terms of value and volume CAGRs all three categories, namely mid-tar, low and ultra low tar cigarettes are expected to see modest improvement of 1% over the forecast period. However, value CAGRs in cigarettes are set to be marginally higher than volume CAGRs. The reason for value growth outperforming volume growth is tax increases that influence smokers to smoke less, quit smoking to shift to contraband cigarettes due to increasing retail prices. In addition, aggressive anti-smoking campaigns are also making an effect on restricting cigarettes’ market growth.

CATEGORY BACKGROUND

Cigarettes: Price Bands

  • Summary 12 Cigarette Price Band Definitions

Cigarettes: Menthol/standard

Cigarettes: Filter/nonfilter

Cigarettes: Carbon/standard filter

Cigarettes: Filter length

Cigarettes: Slims/superslims vs regular

Cigarettes: Pack size

Cigarettes: Pack type

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 16 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 17 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 18 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 19 Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 20 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 21 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 22 Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 23 Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 24 Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 25 Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 26 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2010
  • Table 27 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 28 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 29 Cigarettes Company Shares 2006-2010
  • Table 30 Cigarettes Brand Shares 2007-2010
  • Table 31 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 32 Cigarettes: Production, Imports and Exports: Total Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 33 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 34 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 35 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 36 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tar Level: % Value Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 37 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 38 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 39 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Tobacco Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 40 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Filter Vs Non-filter: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 41 Forecast Sales of Filter Cigarettes by Carbon Vs Non-carbon: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 42 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Length: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 44 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015
  • Table 45 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Type: % Volume Breakdown 2010-2015

Cigars in Estonia - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Consumers in Estonia tend to buy cigars as presents, a factor which makes cigar sales somewhat seasonal, with the runup to Christmas being a particularly popular time to purchase these products. In Estonia, cigars are looked on as a status symbol. They are also widely perceived as being more natural than cigarettes and hence less harmful. In general, cigar smokers belong to higher income groups than cigarette smokers, and, as a result, tend to be less price sensitive.

HAND-MADE VERSUS MACHINE MANUFACTURED SPLITS

  • Table 46 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine-manufactured 2006-2010

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The main distributors of cigars and cigarillos in Estonia remained the same in 2010 as before. Rasa Trading AS represents Corporación Habanos SA as the exclusive distributor of its Cuban tobacco products in the Baltic States. Corporación Habanos SA accounted for 25% of cigars and cigarillos volume. Arnold André Cigars GmbH & Co KG accounted for 26% and Henri Wintermans Cigars constituted 34% of the cigars and cigarillos volume in 2010.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 13 Cigars and Cigarillos - New Product Launches

DISTRIBUTION

PROSPECTS

  • The global economic crisis has ended and as macroeconomic indicators are showing recovery; the industry representatives expect that the recovery in Estonians’ purchasing power will arrive in a delay. Because of that, cigars is set to increase over the forecast period by a 1% CAGR in volume sales. This growth is relatively modest, despite the fact that cigars and cigarillos do not suffer from illicit trade as cigarettes do. The main reason behind this is loyal consumers base, which is not likely to expand in the near future due to specifications of smoking cigars and ciagarillos, such as high unit price and these products not being smoked on daily basis.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 47 Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 48 Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 49 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 50 Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 51 Sales of Cigars by Handmade vs Machine Manufactured: % Volume Breakdown 2005-2010
  • Table 52 Company Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2006-2010
  • Table 53 Brand Shares of Cigars Excluding Cigarillos 2007-2010
  • Table 54 Company Shares of Cigarillos 2006-2010
  • Table 55 Brand Shares of Cigarillos 2007-2010
  • Table 56 Sales of Cigars by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 57 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 58 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 59 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 60 Forecast Sales of Cigars by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Smokeless Tobacco in Estonia - Category Analysis

TRENDS

  • Smokeless tobacco is banned in Estonia under EU law and it is unlikely that this situation will change in the forecast period.

Smoking Tobacco in Estonia - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Smoking tobacco is a relatively limited category in Estonia, but it does enjoy a good level of consumer loyalty. Although relatively inexpensive compared to cigarettes, smoking tobacco enjoys a reputation of offering better quality and taste. Pipe tobacco remains by far the largest category in volume sales terms. Male smokers account for the majority of smoking tobacco sales in Estonia. Tobacco specialists, which offer information on the different tobacco types available and their use, can only be found in Tallinn, Estonia’s capital and largest city. The number of people living in Tallinn continues to increase, which means that more smokers have access to a wider range of smoking tobacco products.

The role and effect of cannabis/marijuana

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • The leading player in smoking tobacco in 2010 was Orlik Tobacco Co, accounting for a retail volume sales share of 34%. Orlik Tobacco Co was followed by Mac Baren Tobacco Co with 17% and Pöschl Tabak Gmbh & Co KG with 13% volume share of retail sales.

NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Summary 14 Smoking Tobacco - New Product Launches

PROSPECTS

  • Smoking tobacco’s retail volume sales are expected to see a 1% CAGR over the forecast period to the year 2015, reaching 22 tonnes in 2015. As the smoking tobacco excise tax is increasing significantly, retail value sales are expected to see a 4% CAGR over the forecast period, reaching EUR2.7 million in 2015.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 61 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2005-2010
  • Table 62 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2005-2010
  • Table 63 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 64 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2005-2010
  • Table 65 Company Shares of RYO Tobacco 2006-2010
  • Table 66 Brand Shares of RYO Tobacco 2007-2010
  • Table 67 Company Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2006-2010
  • Table 68 Brand Shares of Pipe Tobacco 2007-2010
  • Table 69 Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2005-2010
  • Table 70 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Volume 2010-2015
  • Table 71 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: Value 2010-2015
  • Table 72 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2010-2015
  • Table 73 Forecast Sales of Smoking Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2010-2015

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Tobacco
    • Cigarettes
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
    • Cigars
      • Cigars Excluding Cigarillos
        • Large Cigars
        • Standard Cigars
        • Small Cigars
      • Cigarillos
    • Smoking Tobacco
      • RYO Tobacco
      • Pipe Tobacco
    • Smokeless Tobacco
      • Chewing Tobacco
        • Asian-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • US-Style Chewing Tobacco
        • Other Chewing Tobacco
      • Snuff
        • Moist Snuff
          • US-Style Moist Snuff ('Dip')
            • Loose US-Style Moist Snuff
            • Portion US-Style Moist Snuff
          • Swedish-Style Snus
            • Loose Swedish-Style Snus
            • Portion Swedish-Style Snus
          • Asian Style Creamy Snuff
        • Dry Snuff
        • Hard Snuff
    • Cigarettes Including RYO Stick Equivalent
      • High Tar Cigarettes
      • Mid Tar Cigarettes
      • Low Tar Cigarettes
      • Ultra Low Tar Cigarettes
      • RYO Cigarettes

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Company shares
  • Brand shares
  • Distribution
  • Analysis by type
  • Cigarettes by blend
  • Cigarettes by carbon filter/non-carbon filter
  • Cigarettes by filtered/unfiltered
  • Cigarettes by length
  • Cigarettes by pack size
  • Cigarettes by pack type
  • Cigarettes by price band
  • Cigarettes by regular/slim
  • Cigarettes by standard/menthol
  • Illicit trade penetration
  • Pricing
  • Products by ingredient
  • Products by ingredient
  • Smoking population - number of adult smokers
  • Smoking prevalence - % of adult population
  • Taxation
  • Trade statistics - volume

Market size details:

  • Retail volume
  • Retail volume % growth
  • Retail volume per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price real (constant 2008) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Illicit trade volume
  • Illicit trade volume % growth
  • Illicit trade volume per capita
  • Retail volume (sticks)
  • Retail volume (sticks) % growth
  • Retail volume (sticks) per capita
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices % growth
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail value retail selling price nominal (current) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Retail plus illicit trade
  • Retail plus illicit trade % growth
  • Retail plus illicit trade per capita

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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