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Country Report

Consumer Lending in China

Nov 2010

Price: $900

About this Report

About this Report

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Market statistics: Excel workbook doc_excel_table.png (download a sample)

Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Consumer Lending industry in China with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Consumer Lending industry in China, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

The Consumer Lending in China market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Historic volumes and values
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth  
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Consumer Lending in China?
  • What are the major trends set to impact the market in China?
  • What capacity for consumer debt still exists in the market?
  • What’s the state of credit quality in the market?
  • Has the economic downturn reset the lender competitive landscape?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

Euromonitor’s industry reports, including Consumer Lending in China, originate from our database within our Consumer Finance market share and market size database, Passport, a platform which analyses Consumer Finance in 46 countries and globally.

Sample Analysis

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Relaxation in consumer lending regulations

Due partially to the negative effects of the global financial crisis, the Chinese government decided to re-examine the drivers of economic growth in China towards the end of the review period. In line with a major plan to stimulate infrastructure, the government turned its focus on domestic demand. In order to ensure the availability of funding sources, the China Banking Regulatory Commission and the People’s Bank of China worked together to relax the regulatory environment governing consumer lending. Banks were encouraged to offer a wider range of products, such as overseas education loans, wedding ceremony loans and even car repair loans, with higher credit limits and relatively low barriers to their acquisition.

Government strategy regarding consumer finance evolves

As part of it strategy to stimulate domestic demand for consumer finance, the Chinese government has been working to build up the system of consumer lending in China. It has established more consumer finance companies in Beijing and Shanghai, which offer flexible loans for the purchase of durable goods and loans for other purposes such as home renovation and travel. The government has also approved the establishment of new auto finance companies that can compete with banks in delivering more competitive auto loans to consumers.

Testing of new personal credit system

The personal credit evaluation system that was present in China in 2010 was established in the early 2000s and it worked by recording the personal loan activities of consumers. However, both financial institutions and regulators found that the system was unable to serve the needs of consumer lending. Therefore in 2010, a new personal credit evaluation system, which works by giving a score calculated from comprehensive personal information and loan history, was in its testing phase. The system is expected to come into place at the beginning of the forecast period. The new scoring system provides standard and comparable personal credit scores which will be used by financial institutions as the main criterion in their decisions. With the system in place, banks will be able to make very rapid decisions regarding small loans.

Increasing regulations in mortgages/housing

In 2009, owing to soaring house prices, the government intervened in the retail estate industry, placing new restrictions on the availability of credit. The government issued a series of new policies, which included no discount interest benefits on multiple mortgage loans, and it forbade the issue of loans for third mortgages to the same individual in addition to specifying standards to identify requests for third mortgage loans. This resulted in a significant slowdown in the value growth of gross lending in mortgages/housing in 2010.

Small and medium sized banks more aggressive

Small and medium sized banks are a great deal more aggressive than large state-owned banks in trying to retain consumers and in issuing loans, other than loans for mortgages/housing. Most small and medium sized banks adopt a very cautious approach to mortgages/housing lending owing to the systematic risks related to such lending. Therefore these banks place strong focus on the offer of products in consumer credit. The most attractive product in 2010 was offered by Bank of Ningbo, which was a non-collateral revolving loan with relatively low interest and without a specified purpose. The bank controlled the risks by placing tight limitations on the profession of applicants.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Consumer Lending in China - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Relaxation in consumer lending regulations

Government strategy regarding consumer finance evolves

Testing of new personal credit system

Increasing regulations in mortgages/housing

Small and medium sized banks more aggressive

KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS

Consumer lending boosted by auto lending

New personal credit scoring system to become available

The role of insurance companies in consumer lending

Emergence of consumer finance companies

New regulations regarding real estate strike mortgages/housing

MARKET DATA

DEFINITIONS

Mortgages/housing

Consumer credit

Auto lending

Card lending

Home lending

Durables lending

Education lending

Other personal lending

Non-performing

Gross lending

Outstanding balance

  • Summary 1 Research Sources

Consumer Credit in China - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Card lending, followed by auto lending, remained the leading category in consumer credit in terms of current retail value growth in both outstanding balance and gross lending in 2010. However, unlike auto lending, card lending registered a significant slowdown in both types of growth due to a slowdown in the acquisition of new consumers and increased penetration of financial card payments.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • Bank of China Ltd, China Construction Bank Corp, Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd and Agricultural Bank of China Ltd remained the leading players in consumer lending in China in 2009.

PROSPECTS

  • The China Banking Regulatory Commission is expected to approve the entry of more consumer finance companies in consumer lending over the forecast period owing to limitations regarding the geographical coverage of consumer lending in China. However, in order to be able to compete with credit card companies and the products in consumer credit offered by commercial banks, these companies will need to implement their own strategies of differentiation.

CATEGORY DATA

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Consumer Lending
    • Consumer Credit
      • Card Lending
      • Auto Lending
      • Durables Lending
      • Education Lending
      • Home Lending
      • Other Personal Lending
    • Mortgages/Housing

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market Size
  • Non-performing vs Others loans

Market size details:

  • Outstanding Balance real (constant 2008) Prices % growth
  • Outstanding Balance real (constant 2008) Prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding Balance real (constant 2008) Prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross Lending real (constant 2008) Prices % growth
  • Gross Lending real (constant 2008) Prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross Lending real (constant 2008) Prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding Balance % growth
  • Outstanding Balance local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding Balance per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross Lending % growth
  • Gross Lending local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross Lending per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding Balance Nominal (Current) Prices % growth
  • Outstanding Balance Nominal (Current) Prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding Balance Nominal (Current) Prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross Lending Nominal (Current) Prices % growth
  • Gross Lending Nominal (Current) Prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross Lending Nominal (Current) Prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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