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Country Report

Consumer Lending in South Africa

Nov 2011

Price: US$900

About this Report

About this Report

Samples (FAQs about samples):

doc_pdf.png Sample Consumer Lending Market Research Report

doc_excel_table.png Sample Consumer Lending Data

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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Consumer Lending industry in South Africa with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Consumer Lending industry in South Africa, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

The Consumer Lending in South Africa market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Historic volumes and values
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth  
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Consumer Lending in South Africa?
  • What are the major trends set to impact the market in South Africa?
  • What capacity for consumer debt still exists in the market?
  • What’s the state of credit quality in the market?
  • Has the economic downturn reset the lender competitive landscape?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

Euromonitor’s industry reports, including Consumer Lending in South Africa, originate from our database within our Consumer Finance market share and market size database, Passport, a platform which analyses Consumer Finance in 46 countries and globally.

Sample Analysis

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Economic overview

The South African economy remained subdued during 2011, although it has shown significant improvement since 2007. The average consumer is still spending a high proportion of their disposable income paying down debt and many have either lost the ability or the confidence to seek further loans. Furthermore, many consumers continued to lose their jobs in 2011, increasing the pressure on the consumer lending industry. The industry is inextricably linked to the performance of the economy, which was one of the primary factors for the slower-than-expected growth in 2011. However, some sectors of the economy have started to show improvement, which is reflected in the market growth figures, although the industry is still far from its 2007 peak.

Big four dominate the market

Competition in the consumer lending industry continued to intensify in 2011 as consumers sought competitive loans from non-traditional channels in the market. However, the big four banks, namely Absa Bank, FirstRand Bank, Nedbank and Standard Bank of South Africa, jointly hold (by far) the largest proportion of the South African market. Smaller companies and banks, particularly micro-lending companies, have done particularly well over this recessionary period. Competition has particularly intensified in the personal loan area of the market and the big four banks have also been fighting strongly for mortgage clients.

Education lending shows most growth

Education lending was the best performer among the consumer lending categories in 2011 in terms of gross lending. The first reason for this seems to be that education lending generally attracts first-time borrowers and is often backed by a number of university and government programmes. Furthermore, education lending is smaller than some of the other larger areas in the consumer finance industry, such as card and auto lending, and is therefore growing from a comparatively small base.

Credit records remain impinged

Although most institutions have begun to ease consumer lending standards, many consumers are still unable to take advantage as their credit records continue to be impacted by old debts. This has been an added factor in the general slowdown of the consumer lending market. The market itself is only expected to recover to pre-crisis levels in late 2012 and even more so in 2013 as consumers become able to clear old debts and begin to start spending again. Although consumers’ debt-to-disposable income ratio improved slightly in 2011 it is still exceedingly high and that will mean that it will take time before the market can fully recover.

Legislation becoming clearer through landmark judgments

Although the National Credit Act was hailed as one of the most progressive pieces of legislation relating to credit in the world, the act itself lacked clarity about rules and regulations governing implementation. There have been a number of discrepancies in definitions within the act, which has caused confusion and lengthy processes. The debt review system and the definition of improper lending have been two of the major areas that have slowed down the implementation and effectiveness of the act. However, in 2011, a number of landmark judgments were made regarding these sections of the act and it seems that the increased clarity will impact the market significantly.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Consumer Lending in South Africa - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Economic overview

Big four dominate the market

Education lending shows most growth

Credit records remain impinged

Legislation becoming clearer through landmark judgments

KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS

Poor housing market continues to effect mortgage lending

South African economic slowdown

Legislation still lacking but becoming clearer through landmark judgments

Peer-to-peer lending on the increase

Big four aggressively looking outside South Africa

MARKET DATA

  • Table 1 Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 2 Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 3 Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 4 Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 5 Consumer Lending: Non-performing Loans 2006-2011
  • Table 6 Mortgages/Housing: Non-performing Loans 2006-2011
  • Table 7 Consumer Credit: Non-performing Loans 2006-2011
  • Table 8 Card Lending: Non-performing Loans 2006-2011
  • Table 9 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 10 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 11 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 12 Forecast Consumer Lending By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2011-2016

DEFINITIONS

  • Summary 1 Research Sources

Consumer Credit in South Africa - Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS

  • Financial strains, caused predominantly by a poor economic climate, continued to hurt South African consumers’ credit ratings through 2011. Although institutions have begun to (somewhat) ease consumer lending standards compared to previous years, many consumers are still excluded as their credit records remain impinged by old debts. At the time of writing, credit associations estimated that only 53% of South Africans were in good standing with credit bureaus and were able to obtain loans from reputable institutions. This general lack of creditworthy consumers continues to slow down the consumer lending market, which is expected to start recovering in 2012 and 2013, as reflected in Euromonitor International’s figures. Further adding to the woes of credit-providing institutions is that consumers who do have access to credit seem to be thriftier during these hard economic times. At the time of writing, the debt to disposable income ratio had generally improved and was sitting at 75%, which, although historically high, was an improvement on the previous three years and was a good sign that the market would recover in time.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • In terms of competition, general lending remains more fragmented than credit card lending due to legislation governing the issuing of credit cards. There are only six registered credit card providers in South Africa, while there are far more institutions offering mortgage, auto and personal loans. However, the big four banks remain the most significant players in the industry. According to reports issued by the banking association of South Africa, Absa Bank, FirstRand Bank, Nedbank and Standard Bank of South Africa (including through various subsidiaries) have a consumer lending share in excess of 80%. These major financial institutions have interests predominantly in mortgage, auto, durables, card and education lending. However, their housing and automobile books make up the biggest percentage of their debt book. Of the big four banks, Absa Bank has the biggest housing book, while FirstRand Bank (through its subsidiary Wesbank) and Standard Bank of South Africa have a higher percentage of their debt book in auto lending. However, there are a number of other major institutions that are involved in the consumer lending industry. From micro-lenders, such as Capitec Bank and African Bank, to other major mortgage loan institutions such as Sanlam and SA Homeloans. There are also a number of smaller players in the market, including Investec Bank, Virgin Money, the Motor Finance Corp (MFC) and SA Motor Loans. In many cases, smaller companies (for example Virgin Money), will form partnerships with bigger institutions (such as Absa), in order to offer certain products, including credit card and home loan products.

PROSPECTS

  • There is no question that South Africa is still experiencing an extended recession. The economic climate is poor for the consumer lending industry, which is only expected to properly pick up again in mid-to-late 2012. The housing market in South Africa has still not picked up again, with housing prices remaining low and mortgage lending therefore being heavily affected. According to the Debt Counselling Association of South Africa, the repossession rate of automobiles in South Africa remains among the highest in the world and although the automobile industry picked up a bit in 2011 it is still far from the sales levels of 2007. Again, the consumer lending industry is significantly affected by such retail figures. However, the growth of the industry over the forecast period is expected to be 65%. This is good growth by any country’s standards and the current recession should certainly be seen as cyclical. When the market picks up again in 2012 and even more so in 2013, there will be good growth in the consumer lending industry.

CATEGORY DATA

  • Table 13 Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 14 Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 15 Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2006-2011
  • Table 16 Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2006-2011
  • Table 17 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 18 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Outstanding Balance: % Value Growth 2011-2016
  • Table 19 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: Value 2011-2016
  • Table 20 Forecast Consumer Credit By Category: Gross Lending: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Segmentation

Segmentation

This market research report includes the following:

  • Consumer Lending

Statistics Included

Statistics Included

For each category and subcategory you will receive the following data in Excel format:

From Passport

  • Market sizes
  • Non-performing vs others loans

Market size details:

  • Outstanding balance real (constant 2008) prices % growth
  • Outstanding balance real (constant 2008) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding balance real (constant 2008) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending real (constant 2008) prices % growth
  • Gross lending real (constant 2008) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending real (constant 2008) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding balance % growth
  • Outstanding balance local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding balance per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending % growth
  • Gross lending local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding balance nominal (current) prices % growth
  • Outstanding balance nominal (current) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Outstanding balance nominal (current) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending nominal (current) prices % growth
  • Gross lending nominal (current) prices local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY
  • Gross lending nominal (current) prices per capita local currency, USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY

Methodology

Methodology

Global insight and local knowledge

With 40 years’ experience of developed and emerging markets, Euromonitor International’s research method is built on a unique combination of specialist industry knowledge and in-country research expertise.

This approach is what enables us to achieve our goal of building a market consensus view of size, shape and trends across the full distribution universe of each category. We factor in whichever channels are relevant, from large-scale grocery to direct sellers, from discount stores to local mom-and-pop outlets.

Industry specialists

Each industry we cover is managed by an Industry Manager and team of Industry Analysts who research and report on their specialist categories all year round.

Our collaborative approach to research means that these industry teams are in constant dialogue with industry players and opinion formers. The planning of our research programmes reflects latest market trends and industry events. In completing each update project, this provides invaluable input to the testing, review and finalisation of our data.

The specialist in-house teams bring together findings from all stages of the annual research process. They work closely with in-country analysts, assess and challenge data and exercise final editorial control over the publication of new data and analysis.

Country and regional analysts

Our in-country analyst network is managed by country and regional analysts in our offices around the world. Working closely with each in-country team, the regional research management team ensures that all country researchers are well schooled in best practices, from the information collected in store checks, to the dialogue we build in trade surveys. Our country analysts ensure that national reports explain the data trends and provide clear insights into the local market’s dynamics.

In-country research network

To deliver fresh insights every year in countries all around the world, we believe the strongest approach is to use analysts on the ground. They bring fluency in local language, physical proximity to the best sources, an ability to engage directly with local industry contacts, and an awareness of how the products and services we study are advertised, sold and consumed. These are essential parts of our ability to report incisively on these markets.

Research Methodology

Our research methods

Each Euromonitor International industry report is based on a core set of research techniques:

Desk research

With industry events, corporate activity, trends and new product introductions tracked year round by our industry team, desk research provides a starting point for the in-country research programme. Our in-country researchers will access the following sources:

  • National statistics offices governmental and official sources
  • National and international trade press
  • National and international trade associations
  • Industry study groups and other semi-official sources
  • Company financials and annual reports
  • Broker reports
  • Online databases
  • The financial, business and mainstream press

Accessing sources is only the first step. The ability to interpret and reconcile often conflicting information across multiple sources is a key aspect of the added value we provide.

Store checks

Store checks are an integral part of our methods for product industries. Carried out on the ground across a relevant mix of channels, the information gained provides first-hand insights into the products we are researching, specifically:

  • Place: We track products in all relevant channels, selective and mass, store and non-store
  • Product: What are innovations in products, pack sizes and formats?
  • Price: What are brand price variations across channels, how do private label’s prices compare to those of branded goods?
  • Promotion: What are marketing and merchandising trends, offers, discounts and tie-ins?

Findings are cross-referenced with brand share data analysis. The results, combined with the findings of desk research, provide a strong basis for identifying key areas of questioning to take forward into our trade survey.

Trade survey

Interaction with global players at corporate HQ and regional levels is complemented by unique local data and insights from our in-country trade surveys around the world. Through the high profile of the Euromonitor International brand, we are able to talk directly to a wide range of sources and therefore inform our analysis with the knowledge and opinions of the leading operators in the market.

Trade surveys allow us to:

  • Fill gaps in available published data per company
  • Generate a consensus view of the size, structure and strategic direction of the category
  • Access year-in-progress data where published sources are out of date
  • Evaluate the experts’ views on current trends and market developments

In building our composite industry view, we engage with a variety of personnel in key players at all points of the supply chain: materials suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and service operators. We also interview desk research sources: industry associations; study groups; and third party observers from the trade and financial press.

Our objective is to engage in conversation with trade sources in which we exchange ideas and views on the industry, sharing our work-in-progress findings on supply/demand dynamics and potential. This dialogue enhances both parties’ understanding of the local market. The scope and reach of our trade survey also serves to eliminate bias (intentional and unintentional) from any single source.

Company analysis

At a global level, our company research combines our mix of industry interaction and use of secondary sources such as annual accounts, broker reports, financial press and databases. From a data perspective, the aim is to build “top-down” estimates of major players’ total global and regional sales.

At a country level, in line with local reporting requirements, we access annual accounts, national-specific company databases and local company websites. These are all invaluable sources as we build a view of each domestic player’s size and position within very specific categories of the industry.

Forecasts

Data projections and future performance analysis are key elements of Euromonitor International’s market intelligence. Working with historic trends of 15 years or more, a key aspect of our trade survey is to engage industry insider views of the next five years. Will volumes maintain their historic trend? Will price increases or falls of recent years continue, accelerate or slow down? Will increasing demand for one product cannibalise sales of another?

Forecasts represent many of the essential conclusions we have reached about the current state of the market, how it works and how it behaves under different macro and micro conditions. Our written analysis will state the assumptions and the trade opinion behind whether our predictions are optimistic or pessimistic, so that clients can use our statistical forecasts with confidence.

Data validation

All data is subjected to an exhaustive review process, at country, regional and global levels.

The interpretation and review of sources and data inputs forms a central part of the collaboration between industry teams and country researchers. Numbers are delivered to regional and global offices with an audit trail of sources and calculations to allow for a thorough evaluation of data sense and integrity.

Upon completion of the country review phase, data is then reviewed on a comparative basis at regional and then at a global level. Comparative checks are carried out on per capita consumption and spending levels, growth rates, patterns of category and subcategory breakdowns and distribution of sales by channel. Top-down estimates are reviewed against bottom-up regional and global market and company sales totals.

Where marked differences are seen between proximate country markets or ones at similar developmental levels, supplementary research is conducted in the relevant countries to confirm and/or amend those findings. This process ensures international comparability across the database, that consistent category and subcategory definitions have been used and that all data has been correctly tested. We make sure that possible discrepancies between different published sources have been reconciled and that our interpretation of opinion and expectation from each country’s trade sources has been applied to form a coherent international pattern.

Market analysis

Another integral part of all our research programmes is that all Euromonitor International data is accompanied by clear written analysis. From a research perspective, this explains and substantiates data findings. From a client perspective, this offers unique insights into local consumption trends, routes to market, brand preferences, channel dynamics and future trends.

Our country level analysis also provides invaluable input into the ability of our central industry specialist teams to marry local insights with strategic conclusions on the direction of the market regionally and globally.

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