Dairy Products and Alternatives in China
Dairy products and alternatives in 2022: The big picture
What next for dairy products and alternatives?
Chart 1 Dairy Products and Alternatives Value Sales Growth Scenarios: 2020-2027
Chart 2 Dairy Products and Alternatives Impact of Drivers on Value Sales: 2020-2027
Table 1 Sales of Dairy Products and Alternatives by Category: Value 2017-2022
Table 2 Sales of Dairy Products and Alternatives by Category: % Value Growth 2017-2022
Table 3 NBO Company Shares of Dairy Products and Alternatives: % Value 2018-2022
Table 4 LBN Brand Shares of Dairy Products and Alternatives: % Value 2019-2022
Table 5 Distribution of Dairy Products and Alternatives by Format: % Value 2017-2022
Table 6 Forecast Sales of Dairy Products and Alternatives by Category: Value 2022-2027
Table 7 Forecast Sales of Dairy Products and Alternatives by Category: % Value Growth 2022-2027
Summary 1 Research Sources
Baby Food in China
Milk formula starts to decline despite premiumisation and increasing penetration, due to declining birth rate and breastfeeding
Leading local brands continue to gain share in low-tier cities, where consumers have higher trust in made-in-China milk formula
International milk formula brands are also expanding to low-tier cities through various channels and product strategies
Fewer new-born babies expected, leading to a continuous decrease for milk formula, but niche segments will thrive
With comparatively higher birth rates, expanding and low-tier cities will be crucial for milk formula brands to grow
Other baby food set to be dynamic as educated mothers care more about offering a nutritious and diversified diet for their babies
Table 8 Sales of Baby Food by Category: Volume 2017-2022
Table 9 Sales of Baby Food by Category: Value 2017-2022
Table 10 Sales of Baby Food by Category: % Volume Growth 2017-2022
Table 11 Sales of Baby Food by Category: % Value Growth 2017-2022
Table 12 Sales of Growing-Up Milk Formula by Age: % Value 2017-2022
Table 13 NBO Company Shares of Baby Food: % Value 2018-2022
Table 14 LBN Brand Shares of Baby Food: % Value 2019-2022
Table 15 Distribution of Baby Food by Format: % Value 2017-2022
Table 16 Forecast Sales of Baby Food by Category: Volume 2022-2027
Table 17 Forecast Sales of Baby Food by Category: Value 2022-2027
Table 18 Forecast Sales of Baby Food by Category: % Volume Growth 2022-2027
Table 19 Forecast Sales of Baby Food by Category: % Value Growth 2022-2027
Butter and Spreads in China
Lockdowns motivate consumers to explore the creative usage of butter to add a sense of satisfaction to life
Due to their unhealthy perception, sales of margarine and spreads continue to slide
Following the organic, health and sustainability trends, Anchor launches a zero-carbon certified organic butter
With Yili’s new butter production line in New Zealand in operation, more grass-fed butter is expected to be sold in China
Butter expected to maintain a high CAGR in foodservice, driven by the growth of international restaurants in China
Focus on dairy in China offers strong potential for new and existing players
Table 20 Sales of Butter and Spreads by Category: Volume 2017-2022
Table 21 Sales of Butter and Spreads by Category: Value 2017-2022
Table 22 Sales of Butter and Spreads by Category: % Volume Growth 2017-2022
Table 23 Sales of Butter and Spreads by Category: % Value Growth 2017-2022
Table 24 NBO Company Shares of Butter and Spreads: % Value 2018-2022
Table 25 LBN Brand Shares of Butter and Spreads: % Value 2019-2022
Table 26 Distribution of Butter and Spreads by Format: % Value 2017-2022
Table 27 Forecast Sales of Butter and Spreads by Category: Volume 2022-2027
Table 28 Forecast Sales of Butter and Spreads by Category: Value 2022-2027
Table 29 Forecast Sales of Butter and Spreads by Category: % Volume Growth 2022-2027
Table 30 Forecast Sales of Butter and Spreads by Category: % Value Growth 2022-2027
Cheese in China
Retail drives growth, although from a lower base
Even under the impact of lockdowns, processed cheese achieves robust growth due to demand for cheese sticks
Some players expand the target audience and usage occasions
Driven by the craving for cheese tea, spreadable cheese set to record strong growth
New national standards for cheese will put more emphasis on cheese content
Although the penetration rate of unprocessed cheese remains low, consumers are starting to recognise its benefits
Table 31 Sales of Cheese by Category: Volume 2017-2022
Table 32 Sales of Cheese by Category: Value 2017-2022
Table 33 Sales of Cheese by Category: % Volume Growth 2017-2022
Table 34 Sales of Cheese by Category: % Value Growth 2017-2022
Table 35 Sales of Spreadable Processed Cheese by Type: % Value 2017-2022
Table 36 Sales of Soft Cheese by Type: % Value 2017-2022
Table 37 Sales of Hard Cheese by Type: % Value 2017-2022
Table 38 NBO Company Shares of Cheese: % Value 2018-2022
Table 39 LBN Brand Shares of Cheese: % Value 2019-2022
Table 40 Distribution of Cheese by Format: % Value 2017-2022
Table 41 Forecast Sales of Cheese by Category: Volume 2022-2027
Table 42 Forecast Sales of Cheese by Category: Value 2022-2027
Table 43 Forecast Sales of Cheese by Category: % Volume Growth 2022-2027
Table 44 Forecast Sales of Cheese by Category: % Value Growth 2022-2027
Drinking Milk Products in China
Omicron outbreaks and price rises are the two major factors affecting drinking milk products
Fresh milk maintains strong momentum due to consumers’ rising awareness of health
Yili offers China’s first carbon-neutral milk
Indulgence and health appeal set to drive premiumisation in drinking milk products
BeFood’s MILBOK creates a new latte phenomenon
Foodservice volumes of fresh milk set to grow, aligned with the booming coffee scene
Table 45 Sales of Drinking Milk Products by Category: Volume 2017-2022
Table 46 Sales of Drinking Milk Products by Category: Value 2017-2022
Table 47 Sales of Drinking Milk Products by Category: % Volume Growth 2017-2022
Table 48 Sales of Drinking Milk Products by Category: % Value Growth 2017-2022
Table 49 NBO Company Shares of Drinking Milk Products: % Value 2018-2022
Table 50 LBN Brand Shares of Drinking Milk Products: % Value 2019-2022
Table 51 Distribution of Drinking Milk Products by Format: % Value 2017-2022
Table 52 Forecast Sales of Drinking Milk Products Products by Category: Volume 2022-2027
Table 53 Forecast Sales of Drinking Milk Products Products by Category: Value 2022-2027
Table 54 Forecast Sales of Drinking Milk Products Products by Category: % Volume Growth 2022-2027
Table 55 Forecast Sales of Drinking Milk Products Products by Category: % Value Growth 2022-2027
Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products in China
Yoghurt continues to struggle
Yoghurt manufacturers make strategic investments in milk sources
Health and wellness continues to be the most significant trend and drives premiumisation
Shelf stable yoghurt still has growth potential
Drinking yoghurt sees launches with bubbles, indicating a new direction
More family-size drinking yoghurt indicates the expansion of consumption occasions
Table 56 Sales of Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products by Category: Volume 2017-2022
Table 57 Sales of Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products by Category: Value 2017-2022
Table 58 Sales of Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products by Category: % Volume Growth 2017-2022
Table 59 Sales of Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products by Category: % Value Growth 2017-2022
Table 60 Sales of Flavoured Yoghurt by Flavour: Rankings 2017-2022
Table 61 NBO Company Shares of Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products: % Value 2018-2022
Table 62 LBN Brand Shares of Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products: % Value 2019-2022
Table 63 Distribution of Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products by Format: % Value 2017-2022
Table 64 Forecast Sales of Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products by Category: Volume 2022-2027
Table 65 Forecast Sales of Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products by Category: Value 2022-2027
Table 66 Forecast Sales of Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products by Category: % Volume Growth 2022-2027
Table 67 Forecast Sales of Yoghurt and Sour Milk Products by Category: % Value Growth 2022-2027
Other Dairy in China
Waves of Omicron affect other dairy in various ways
Smaller pack sizes encourage retail purchases
Anchor’s whipped cream comes with trendy milk tea kits from Cha Yan Yue Se
Cream set to be the most promising category due to its multiple uses
New usage of condensed and evaporated milk in foodservice will also impact retail
Foreign players expected to maintain dominance
Table 68 Sales of Other Dairy by Category: Volume 2017-2022
Table 69 Sales of Other Dairy by Category: Value 2017-2022
Table 70 Sales of Other Dairy by Category: % Volume Growth 2017-2022
Table 71 Sales of Other Dairy by Category: % Value Growth 2017-2022
Table 72 Sales of Cream by Type: % Value 2017-2022
Table 73 NBO Company Shares of Other Dairy: % Value 2018-2022
Table 74 LBN Brand Shares of Other Dairy: % Value 2019-2022
Table 75 Distribution of Other Dairy by Format: % Value 2017-2022
Table 76 Forecast Sales of Other Dairy by Category: Volume 2022-2027
Table 77 Forecast Sales of Other Dairy by Category: Value 2022-2027
Table 78 Forecast Sales of Other Dairy by Category: % Volume Growth 2022-2027
Table 79 Forecast Sales of Other Dairy by Category: % Value Growth 2022-2027
Plant-Based Dairy in China
Plant-based milk has not yet recovered to the pre-COVID-19 level
Luckin’s coconut milk latte creates a coconut milk scene in both foodservice and retail
Oat milk attracts new players
Oatly actively exploring oat milk as an ingredient
Table 80 Sales of Plant-Based Dairy by Category: Volume 2017-2022
Table 81 Sales of Plant-Based Dairy by Category: Value 2017-2022
Table 82 Sales of Plant-Based Dairy by Category: % Volume Growth 2017-2022
Table 83 Sales of Plant-Based Dairy by Category: % Value Growth 2017-2022
Table 84 Sales of Other Plant-Based Milk by Type: % Value 2019-2022
Table 85 NBO Company Shares of Plant-Based Dairy: % Value 2018-2022
Table 86 LBN Brand Shares of Plant-Based Dairy: % Value 2019-2022
Table 87 Distribution of Plant-Based Dairy by Format: % Value 2017-2022
Table 88 Forecast Sales of Plant-Based Dairy by Category: Volume 2022-2027
Table 89 Forecast Sales of Plant-Based Dairy by Category: Value 2022-2027
Table 90 Forecast Sales of Plant-Based Dairy by Category: % Volume Growth 2022-2027
Table 91 Forecast Sales of Plant-Based Dairy by Category: % Value Growth 2022-2027