Over the forecast period, the average unit price of olive oil is expected to come down to more reasonable levels, a trend which is likely to have a very positive impact on demand. The main reason for the dramatic unit price increases seen in olive oil during 2022 and 2023 was the plummeting exchange value of the hryvnia and this is because all of the olive oil consumed in Ukraine is imported.
One extremely unfortunate factor that is expected to influence the supply of edible oils in Ukraine throughout forecast period is the impact of war damage on the local edible oils manufacturing industry, with sunflower oil producers likely to be faced with substantial interruptions to their operations for some time. Within this context, it is likely that other categories of edible oils will have new opportunities to generate sales growth as consumers will eventually begin focusing on health and wellness once again as the influence of armed conflict recedes.
Assuming that armed conflict in Ukraine will eventually come to an end at some point in the next five years, it is also inevitable that Ukraine’s sunflower oil exports will return to full capacity before the end of the forecast period. While this is excellent news for the country’s edible oils manufacturers and exporters, it also means that substantial unit price increases are likely to be seen in sunflower oil, once the bulk of the country’s sunflower oil output is once again being exported.
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This is the aggregation of olive oil and vegetable and seed oil (which comprises of corn oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soy oil, sunflower oil, and other edible oil). Please note blended oil that contain over 50% of one type of oil are categorised in that category, e.g. blended oil with 60% soy oil is categorised in soy oil; whereas blended oils with less than 50% of a specific type of oil are categorised in other edible oil. Includes: Pre-packaged edible oils products purchased by consumers through legally established retail channels. Excludes: Unpackaged/bulk oils, i.e. instances where consumers bring an empty container or plastic bag to be (re)filled with cooking oil. Example: Minyak curah in Indonesia.See All of Our Definitions
This report originates from Passport, our Edible Oils research and analysis database.
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