The continued declines in volume sales across cigars, cigarillos and smoking tobacco in 2021 were partly due to government policies to discourage smoking, with the offer of free smoking cessation services in the country. In addition, the ban on smoking in public places and the ongoing social stigma of smoking continued to impact sales.
Some smokers of heavier cigarettes are switching to cigarillos. Cigarillos have lower excise, and as such can compete with cigarettes in terms of price.
The cigar smoking population is not decreasing as quickly as the population that uses cigarettes and smoking tobacco. Cigars are seen as luxury products that are smoked for special occasions.
In the forecast period the excise tax on smoking tobacco will be increased in line with excise tax on cigarettes. The government’s plan is to continue to increase excise further from 2023, based on the coalition agreement presented in December 2021.
Those who use smoking tobacco are increasingly unlikely to see this as an alternative to cigarettes. A small number of smokers do still switch from cigarettes to smoking tobacco as prices increase, but the difference in price is becoming smaller, which will limit the appeal of this practice.
Although cigars and cigarillos is set to see volume declines throughout the forecast period, price-fighter cigarillos is likely to limit the decline somewhat, as excise taxes are not increased as regularly for cigarillos. Although it is targeting tobacco in general, the government is not specifically targeting cigarillos in its dissuasion policies.
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Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco
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