After a peak the year before, retail volume sales in cigars and cigarillos remained at a high level and significantly superior to pre-pandemic levels in the second year of the pandemic in 2021, because of limited opportunities for legal and illegal cross-border sales due to temporarily closed borders and travel restrictions. The strong decline in cross-border traffic and home seclusion during the COVID-19 pandemic had a strong positive impact on cigarette sales in 2020, as many cigarette smokers could only purchase cigarettes locally, however this was only a minor driver in sales of cigars and cigarillos.
After a peak the year before, retail volume sales in fine cut tobacco remained on a high level and significantly superior to pre-pandemic levels in the second year of the pandemic in 2021.
After a peak the year before, retail volume sales in pipe tobacco remained on a high level and significantly superior to pre-pandemic levels in the second year of the pandemic in 2021. The reason for this was the high popularity of shishas, which have seen a great increase in interest over the past ten years, driven by the expansion of specialised shisha bars.
It is yet uncertain as to what extent additional interest in cigars and cigarillos, as seen during the time of the pandemic, will prevail over the forecast period. Cigars has a good chance to benefit from a lasting impact, as retail volume sales are likely to see a slight downward trend but are expected to remain superior to 2019 pre-pandemic levels throughout most of the forecast period.
Fine cut tobacco is likely to see a clear downward trend over the forecast period and fall back below 2019 pre-pandemic levels more quickly. Furthermore, with the reopening of borders and the higher availability levels of cheaper cross-border cigarettes again, this will pose a challenge to fine cut tobacco sales which were inspired by price-sensitive consumers seeking to economise.
Given the strong performance of shisha tobacco, even in the face of closures/bans in foodservice establishments, the forecast on pipe tobacco remains very optimistic. A notable number of consumers purchased shishas for their homes during the pandemic, as a way to make home seclusion more enjoyable.
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Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco
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