Retail constant value (2021 prices) sales of cigars, cigarillos and smoking tobacco declined marginally in 2021. Retail volume sales of both cigars and cigarillos are in long-term decline, but fine cut tobacco and particularly pipe tobacco are growing in popularity.
Pipe tobacco remained by far the strongest performer in this category in both volume and value terms during 2021. Shisha tobacco is growing in popularity amongst young adults, supported by the regular launch of new brands and exotic flavours by the likes of White Horse, Revoshi or Mala Vida Shisha.
Fine cut tobacco benefited from COVID-19 restrictions during 2020. With consumers spending more time at home, fine cut tobacco gained share, as they had more time to make their own cigarettes and to search for less expensive smoking options.
The trends that dominated 2021 will persist throughout the forecast period – retail volume sales of cigarillos and cigars will continue to decline, while fine cut tobacco and particularly pipe tobacco will continue to grow in popularity with local consumers. This will drive modest growth in retail constant value sales for the category as a whole.
After such strong growth towards the end of the review period, demand for shisha tobacco (under pipe tobacco) is set to gradually lose momentum over the forecast period, although it will continue to be the strongest performer overall, due to attracting younger adults and its traditional association with socialising. The social aspect of sitting around a water pipe and comparatively lower prices are expected to continue to support its popularity among younger consumers.
Demand for fine cut tobacco will be buoyed by mounting inflationary pressure during the early part of the forecast period, as this will lead more local consumers to trade down from more expensive cigarettes. Demand for fine cut tobacco could also be boosted by the ratcheting up of tax on cigarettes.
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Cigars, Cigarillos and Smoking Tobacco
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