COVID-19 will lead to a significant shift in volume sales of coffee from the foodservice channel to retail. As a result, while the total volume – foodservice and retail – of coffee sales will decline during 2020, retail current value sales of coffee will rise for the first time in four years.
In the midst of the pandemic, demand for small, everyday luxuries grew. With many consumers seeking a more café-like experience at home, there was strong growth in demand for fresh coffee beans.
Jacobs Douwe Egberts Norge AS will remain the leading player in coffee during 2020. It maintains a strong position in fresh ground standard coffee, where its Friele and Coop Kaffe brands command a high level of consumer loyalty.
Consumers are expected to increase their focus on quality during the forecast period, which will lead to the intensification of the premiumisation trend, and fresh coffee beans will continue to be among the biggest beneficiaries of this. Additionally, as more coffee is consumed during working hours, the importance of fast preparation will grow, which will benefit fresh ground coffee pods in particular, where the launch of more premium products is helping to keep consumers interested.
The importance of sustainability will continue to grow for consumers of coffee, and this will lead more producers to embrace organic products and acquire new certifications. Norwegian consumers tend to be well informed and often look beyond simply the organic attribute for evidence of sustainability across the whole supply chain.
Foodservice volume sales of coffee are set to rebound during 2021, as life begins to return to something approaching normality in the wake of COVID-19, with consumers socialising more and working from home less. However, this recovery will only be partial, and even by the end of the forecast period, foodservice volume sales of coffee will not have recovered to their pre-pandemic peak.
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