The outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 has stopped the negative trend of retail volume sales in Serbia, with volume growth of 3% predicted in 2020, compared to a decline of 1% in 2019. Off-trade volume sales were declining throughout the review period, thanks to saturation in the main category of standard fresh ground coffee.
While retail is set to post a boost in performance, on-trade volume sales are expected to decline significantly in 2020, with the outbreak of COVID-19 requiring consumers to stay at home. During the lockdown periods, all non-essential retailers and foodservice outlets were closed for dining in, and therefore, this led to a huge decline in sales for the on-trade channel, while boosting sales for retail.
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in Serbia is increasing growth in coffee sales through e-commerce. This is occurring as many consumers are cautious about leaving the home, even to shop at essential grocery retailers.
As a result of 2020’s unexpected growth, off-trade volume sales of coffee are set to decline in 2021, when they are also expected to return to 2019 levels. However, from 2022 and until the end of the forecast period, coffee will record both retail volume and value growth.
While retail sales are set to post a volume decline in 2021, on-trade volume sales are expected to grow significantly, thanks to the reopening of foodservice outlets, and consumers growing confidence to return to their old habits, meeting friends and family and enjoying a cup of coffee while socialising. Following double-digit volume growth in 2021, double-digit growth is also predicted for 2022, with consumers continuing to move to cafés and restaurants to enjoy coffee.
Coffee pods and instant coffee, both standard and coffee mixes, are expected to record a very strong performance across the forecast period, with fresh ground coffee pods recording the highest value growth, followed by instant coffee mixes. This indicates that consumer habits are changing, as younger people are increasingly turning away from traditional coffee and towards instant or pod-based servings.
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Understand the latest market trends and future growth opportunities for the Coffee industry in Serbia with research from Euromonitor International's team of in-country analysts – experts by industry and geographic specialisation.
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This report originates from Passport, our Coffee research and analysis database.
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