In 2020, coffee is anticipated to be negatively impacted by the pandemic in terms of volume with all product areas predicted to see declining volume growth. In response to the financial repercussions of the pandemic, many Uruguayan consumers have been limiting their spending of coffee and instead investing in value-priced other plant based hot drinks such as yerba maté and tea.
Over the review period, consumption of coffee pods was increasing, leading the product area to see strong growth between 2015-2019. However, in response to the pandemic, coffee pods has been replaced by ground coffee options, due to the lower cost per coffee cup of the latter.
From 14 March 2020, all foodservice establishments were obliged to close, with some being able to offer delivery services. However, it is highly unlikely for consumers to order a coffee for home delivery, when they can prepare it at home themselves which is more cost-effective and poses less of a risk in terms of contamination of the virus.
After seeing volume decline in 2020 in response to the pandemic, coffee is projected to see moderate growth in 2021 as the recovery process begins. By the end of 2022, coffee will recover in terms of volume to what it was prior to the pandemic.
The foodservice industry is anticipated to take at least three years to recover, with noticeable recovery being seen from 2022 onwards. However, the recovery process is anticipated to be slow as anxieties surrounding the virus linger, meaning many consumers will continue to avoid coffee shops and cafés as they continue to be afraid of contracting the virus.
E-commerce will play an important role in the recovery of coffee over the forecast period. Firstly, many consumers will continue to be afraid to visit instore distributors and therefore favour shopping via e-commerce has it dramatically reduces the risk of possible infection.
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This report originates from Passport, our Coffee research and analysis database.
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