At the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, foodservice outlets were closed and Danes were required to hunker down and spend more time at home. This, of course, resulted in a drop in foodservice volume sales of coffee and a simultaneous spike in retail sales, trends in demand that are ongoing even as pandemic-related restrictions are eased.
As Danes spend more time at home in 2020, many are finding themselves exploring higher-quality coffee, experimenting with more interesting options when they prepare coffee for at-home consumption. In particular, there is greater interest amongst consumers in fresh coffee beans, a format that had already recorded good growth during the review period.
Merrild Kaffe A/S, the perennial leader in fresh ground coffee and ranked second in instant coffee, is set to maintain its value share leadership in coffee in 2020. Unlike some other leading players in the coffee category, nearly all of the sales of Merrild Kaffe A/S are via the retail channel rather than the on-trade channel, and that preponderance of sales has certainly been advantageous in the midst of the pandemic in 2020.
After a pandemic-related double-digit decline in 2020, foodservice volume sales of coffee are expected to bounce back with relatively robust growth over the forecast period as restaurants, cafés and other on-trade venues resume their regular operations. On the other hand, foodservice volume sales will see relatively steady growth, even though projections see them reaching pre-pandemic levels only in the later years of the forecast period.
During the review period, the distribution share of e-commerce in the retail coffee category increased steadily, although that share remained small compared to store-based channels. Regardless, at the onset of the pandemic in 2020, when many consumers began avoiding visits to brick-and-mortar retailers, interest in the e-commerce channel was piqued, resulting in a spike in distribution share that is expected to remain sustained over the forecast period.
Growth in the coffee category has traditionally been driven by product innovation, and those efforts are expected to resume with more intensity in 2021 and over the remainder of the forecast period as players shake off the immediate effects of the pandemic and renew investment in new product development. During the review period, new product launches reflected consumers’ interest in premium products, particularly fair trade and sustainable products, and this is expected to resume as the forecast period progresses.
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