As reported by ISS (Istituto Superiore di Sanità - Higher Institute of Health), the main research body for public health in Italy, between late 2020 and the first half of 2021 certain effects of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic related to uncertainty, stress and anxiety engendered a significant increase in smoking prevalence in the country. While the increase in smoking prevalence was mostly visible in terms of e-vapour and heated tobacco products, it also impacted the number of smokers and consumption of traditional cigarettes.
Legislation engendered a significant rise (linked to the excise duty increase) in the prices of cigarettes in 2021. The average price of a pack of 20 sticks of cigarettes increased by close to EUR0.
As price rises also affected smoking tobacco, the migration to fine cut tobacco was less relevant, although ongoing, in 2021. Indeed, given the shift in focus of key global manufacturers towards e-vapour and heated tobacco products, the performance of cigarettes was strictly related to the performances of these alternative tobacco products.
The most relevant trends observed towards the end of the review period are set to continue to strongly impact cigarettes over the forecast period. In this vein, health concerns and price-sensitivity are predicted to continue to lead smokers away from cigarettes.
Progressively increasing taxation up to 2023, according to the stipulations of the latest Legge di Bilancio (Budget Law), is likely to impact retail prices quite significantly. This factor is expected to shape the migration effect within tobacco, to the detriment of cigarettes.
The decline in cigarettes is set to continue to be affected by the increasing focus of manufacturers on alternative tobacco categories. Manufacturers are noting the declining interest in cigarettes and switching their resources to likely more profitable and perceived less harmful and antisocial categories.
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RETAIL SALES OF DUTY PAID CIGARETTES The definition of cigarettes for the purposes of this study is duty-paid, machine manufactured white-stick products. This does not exclude brands of cigarettes that do not use white paper but it is designed to exclude the volume of non-machine manufactured products such as bidis/beedis (India) and papirosy (Russia), and other smoking products made with tobacco but that either do not resemble cigarettes as recognised in the US or Europe, or those that are not machine manufactured. The exclusion of these products is intended to give a more accurate picture of the "true" market for cigarettes and cigars which has been distorted in official statistics and published reports because of the inclusion of hybrid products. NB Please note that due to its central importance and integration into the industry mainstream, Indonesia’s market data does include hand-rolled kreteks DUTY-FREE sales are excluded from retail sales, as are herbal cigarettes. ILLICIT TRADE CIGARETTES Not included in retail sales, but split out separately in volume terms only. Defined as non-duty paid cigarettes (includes smuggled & counterfeit/fake products combined). Legitimate cross-border sales are considered duty-paid. Sales arising from a foreign national purchasing cheaper cigarettes in bulk in a neighbouring country for personal use and exported back are attributed to the country where the purchase is made (e.g. bulk cigarette sales by British nationals in France are attributed to France).See All of Our Definitions
This report originates from Passport, our Cigarettes research and analysis database.
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