In 2021, retail volume sales of cigarettes declined, in congruence with the trend observed during the review period. There is a myriad of factors that contributed to the continued decline in the smoking prevalence in Canada over 2020-2021.
During 2021, even though there were periodically surges in the number of COVID-19 cases, public health measures were gradually eased across regions in Canada. As a result, Canadians became more mobile and spent less time at home, leading to a resumption of illicit trade.
Over the years, with the rising health awareness and smoke cessation programmes and the like, there is a consistent trend for smokers seeking to give up smoking or resort to alternatives perceived as less harmful. Meanwhile, technological development in vaping has come a long way, presenting more options and interesting new experiences to consumers, from disposable and rechargeable closed vaping systems to open vaping systems and heated tobacco.
The pandemic heightened awareness of health and wellness, particularly around respiratory illnesses and disease, in Canada. This, alongside rising prices, is expected to lead to further drops in smoking prevalence, including a return to the steady drop in the number of adult male smokers, and total adult smokers, over the forecast period.
The legal framework for tobacco control will likely continue to evolve over the forecast period. For instance, the plain packaging regulation will be fully implemented as of 2022 which requires full compliance from retailers as well.
As demand for traditional tobacco products declines, innovations are emerging rapidly, including a new generation of e-vapour products, heated tobacco products and nicotine pouches. Over the forecast period, more innovations will follow, aiming to make the transition from cigarettes easier, as well as reducing the negative health effects, while improving user experience.
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RETAIL SALES OF DUTY PAID CIGARETTES The definition of cigarettes for the purposes of this study is duty-paid, machine manufactured white-stick products. This does not exclude brands of cigarettes that do not use white paper but it is designed to exclude the volume of non-machine manufactured products such as bidis/beedis (India) and papirosy (Russia), and other smoking products made with tobacco but that either do not resemble cigarettes as recognised in the US or Europe, or those that are not machine manufactured. The exclusion of these products is intended to give a more accurate picture of the "true" market for cigarettes and cigars which has been distorted in official statistics and published reports because of the inclusion of hybrid products. NB Please note that due to its central importance and integration into the industry mainstream, Indonesia’s market data does include hand-rolled kreteks DUTY-FREE sales are excluded from retail sales, as are herbal cigarettes. ILLICIT TRADE CIGARETTES Not included in retail sales, but split out separately in volume terms only. Defined as non-duty paid cigarettes (includes smuggled & counterfeit/fake products combined). Legitimate cross-border sales are considered duty-paid. Sales arising from a foreign national purchasing cheaper cigarettes in bulk in a neighbouring country for personal use and exported back are attributed to the country where the purchase is made (e.g. bulk cigarette sales by British nationals in France are attributed to France).See All of Our Definitions
This report originates from Passport, our Cigarettes research and analysis database.
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