Cigarettes saw another year of retail volume decline in 2021, in spite of lockdowns and people staying at home for extended periods of the year. There were reports that some smokers started smoking more during the COVID-19 pandemic due to more time spent at home and stress-related factors.
Compared with 2020, the growth of illicit trade volumes of cigarettes slowed in 2021, in spite of an increase in excise in this year. In 2021, the police found and shut down several illegal tobacco manufacturers, reducing the availability of illicit tobacco in the Netherlands.
Efforts are being made by government and non-governmental organisations to promote smoke-free environments for adults and children. These efforts are designed to ban smoking from the public sphere as much as possible, without going as far as an outright ban on smoking outside the home.
Over the forecast period, volume sales of cigarettes are expected to continue to decline. One of the main reasons for this will be that excise taxes are likely to increase further.
As excise taxes are increased, some smokers are likely to turn away from cigarettes by stopping smoking entirely. However, not all smokers will want to quit smoking tobacco, but will also not want to pay the higher price for their usual brand.
Government regulation is set to limit the channels through which consumers can buy cigarettes, which is another factor set to contribute to the decline in volume sales of cigarettes in the forecast period. This is part of the National Prevention Agreement – to limit the availability of tobacco in order to discourage its use.
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Cigarettes
RETAIL SALES OF DUTY PAID CIGARETTES The definition of cigarettes for the purposes of this study is duty-paid, machine manufactured white-stick products. This does not exclude brands of cigarettes that do not use white paper but it is designed to exclude the volume of non-machine manufactured products such as bidis/beedis (India) and papirosy (Russia), and other smoking products made with tobacco but that either do not resemble cigarettes as recognised in the US or Europe, or those that are not machine manufactured. The exclusion of these products is intended to give a more accurate picture of the "true" market for cigarettes and cigars which has been distorted in official statistics and published reports because of the inclusion of hybrid products. NB Please note that due to its central importance and integration into the industry mainstream, Indonesia’s market data does include hand-rolled kreteks DUTY-FREE sales are excluded from retail sales, as are herbal cigarettes. ILLICIT TRADE CIGARETTES Not included in retail sales, but split out separately in volume terms only. Defined as non-duty paid cigarettes (includes smuggled & counterfeit/fake products combined). Legitimate cross-border sales are considered duty-paid. Sales arising from a foreign national purchasing cheaper cigarettes in bulk in a neighbouring country for personal use and exported back are attributed to the country where the purchase is made (e.g. bulk cigarette sales by British nationals in France are attributed to France).
See All of Our DefinitionsThis report originates from Passport, our Cigarettes research and analysis database.
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