There was a decrease in the sales volume of cigarettes in Tunisia in 2021. Several factors contributed to this decrease, but the most important factor is the increase in the selling prices of local and imported cigarettes.
2021 was a historic year in terms of price increases. Usually, the increase occurs once every two years, and does not exceed 10-15%.
Despite the efforts of the Ministry of Finance to fight against smuggling, 2021 saw ongoing, high double-digit penetration in illicit cigarettes. New brands include Edge with three products, Oris with two products, and Nero, among others.
The decrease in volume sales is expected to continue over the forecast period. The economic situation in Tunisia is not stable, in addition to the unbalanced political situation, which negatively impacts the purchasing power of Tunisian consumers.
The parallel/illicit trade in cigarettes will continue over the forecast period, especially as the prices of such products are still accessible for the majority of Tunisians – especially so as the purchasing power of Tunisia consumers continues to decrease. Furthermore, the large presence of illicit trade cigarettes in Tunisia is highly visible, as they are very widely available, mainly coming from Algeria and Libya.
Price increases is cigarettes are expected to continue over the forecast period. 2021 was a historic year in terms of price increases.
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RETAIL SALES OF DUTY PAID CIGARETTES The definition of cigarettes for the purposes of this study is duty-paid, machine manufactured white-stick products. This does not exclude brands of cigarettes that do not use white paper but it is designed to exclude the volume of non-machine manufactured products such as bidis/beedis (India) and papirosy (Russia), and other smoking products made with tobacco but that either do not resemble cigarettes as recognised in the US or Europe, or those that are not machine manufactured. The exclusion of these products is intended to give a more accurate picture of the "true" market for cigarettes and cigars which has been distorted in official statistics and published reports because of the inclusion of hybrid products. NB Please note that due to its central importance and integration into the industry mainstream, Indonesia’s market data does include hand-rolled kreteks DUTY-FREE sales are excluded from retail sales, as are herbal cigarettes. ILLICIT TRADE CIGARETTES Not included in retail sales, but split out separately in volume terms only. Defined as non-duty paid cigarettes (includes smuggled & counterfeit/fake products combined). Legitimate cross-border sales are considered duty-paid. Sales arising from a foreign national purchasing cheaper cigarettes in bulk in a neighbouring country for personal use and exported back are attributed to the country where the purchase is made (e.g. bulk cigarette sales by British nationals in France are attributed to France).See All of Our Definitions
This report originates from Passport, our Cigarettes research and analysis database.
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