In Germany, the consumption of cigarettes remained at a high level in 2021. While retail volume sales recorded another low decline in 2021, overall tobacco consumption remains rather high.
The pandemic resulted in several lockdowns in Germany. In 2021, many stores (those that were not considered essential) were forced to close.
As borders reopened over 2021, cross-border sales have improved. In 2020, border closures led to a decrease in cross-border mobility, which eventually led to increasing domestic sales as consumers had to search for alternatives.
The German Bundestag has agreed on updating the tobacco taxation scheme by implementing the Tobacco Duty Modernisation Act (Tabaksteuermodernisierungsgesetz). For many years, tobacco tax had not increased.
The price of tobacco products is going to increase over the forecast period. This factor and the increasing inflationary pressure on consumers’ purses will likely lead to greater trade across German borders, especially in East Germany.
As smoking prevalence is likely to remain high over the forecast period in Germany, some share of cigarette consumption will stem from overseas. This is likely to intensify competition in the German market.
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RETAIL SALES OF DUTY PAID CIGARETTES The definition of cigarettes for the purposes of this study is duty-paid, machine manufactured white-stick products. This does not exclude brands of cigarettes that do not use white paper but it is designed to exclude the volume of non-machine manufactured products such as bidis/beedis (India) and papirosy (Russia), and other smoking products made with tobacco but that either do not resemble cigarettes as recognised in the US or Europe, or those that are not machine manufactured. The exclusion of these products is intended to give a more accurate picture of the "true" market for cigarettes and cigars which has been distorted in official statistics and published reports because of the inclusion of hybrid products. NB Please note that due to its central importance and integration into the industry mainstream, Indonesia’s market data does include hand-rolled kreteks DUTY-FREE sales are excluded from retail sales, as are herbal cigarettes. ILLICIT TRADE CIGARETTES Not included in retail sales, but split out separately in volume terms only. Defined as non-duty paid cigarettes (includes smuggled & counterfeit/fake products combined). Legitimate cross-border sales are considered duty-paid. Sales arising from a foreign national purchasing cheaper cigarettes in bulk in a neighbouring country for personal use and exported back are attributed to the country where the purchase is made (e.g. bulk cigarette sales by British nationals in France are attributed to France).See All of Our Definitions
This report originates from Passport, our Cigarettes research and analysis database.
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