The forecast for the period from 2023 to 2024 in Brazil indicates a slowdown in the inflation scenario. On the one hand, this could provide consumers with more disposable income, but it will also pressure the dollar exchange rate down, improving the margins and interest in illegal cigarettes.
Since 2015, producers of cigarettes have been consistently concerned about the level of taxation imposed on these products. The ongoing increases in costs and final prices has created a competitive advantage for illegal brands, allowing them to gain share.
The growing consumption of alcoholic drinks for indulgence purposes throughout 2020 and 2021 highlighted Brazilians’ willingness to invest in specific products. This trend is expected to persist, even in the face of predicted macroeconomic challenges.
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RETAIL SALES OF DUTY PAID CIGARETTES The definition of cigarettes for the purposes of this study is duty-paid, machine manufactured white-stick products. This does not exclude brands of cigarettes that do not use white paper but it is designed to exclude the volume of non-machine manufactured products such as bidis/beedis (India) and papirosy (Russia), and other smoking products made with tobacco but that either do not resemble cigarettes as recognised in the US or Europe, or those that are not machine manufactured. The exclusion of these products is intended to give a more accurate picture of the "true" market for cigarettes and cigars which has been distorted in official statistics and published reports because of the inclusion of hybrid products. NB Please note that due to its central importance and integration into the industry mainstream, Indonesia’s market data does include hand-rolled kreteks DUTY-FREE sales are excluded from retail sales, as are herbal cigarettes. ILLICIT TRADE CIGARETTES Not included in retail sales, but split out separately in volume terms only. Defined as non-duty paid cigarettes (includes smuggled & counterfeit/fake products combined). Legitimate cross-border sales are considered duty-paid. Sales arising from a foreign national purchasing cheaper cigarettes in bulk in a neighbouring country for personal use and exported back are attributed to the country where the purchase is made (e.g. bulk cigarette sales by British nationals in France are attributed to France).See All of Our Definitions
This report originates from Passport, our Cigarettes research and analysis database.
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