Cigarettes in Norway

PRE-COVID-19 PERFORMANCE

A decline in daily smokers, low levels of innovation and strict advertising regulations, lead to a reduction in volume and value growth in 2019

A marked decline in daily smokers of both sexes in 2019, leads to an overall decline in both growth and value sales for the year. Furthermore, there was a parallel increase in the share of daily snus users, which indicates smokers migration to reduced harm alternatives.

Illicit trade and cross-border trade remain key industry concerns within cigarettes in 2019

Illicit trade is not estimated to have grown substantially in 2019; however, it is comparatively high in Norway compared to other European countries. This is primarily due to high price-points, and elevated tobacco taxes in Norway compared to neighbouring countries.

In 2019, British American Tobacco Norway AS leads, as new players are challenged by marketing regulations and grocery retailers’ sales targets

The cigarettes landscape remained highly consolidated in 2019, the result of stringent legislation including advertising bans, point-of-sale display bans and plain packaging regulations that came into place in 2018. Therefore, there is minimal opportunity to communicate new product launches to consumers, resulting in few new product launches.

2020 AND BEYOND

COVID-19 impact

In 2020, sales of cigarettes are now expected to grow by 3% in constant 2019 value terms in light of the impact of COVID-19. This compares to a decline of 1% forecast in our 2019 edition of tobacco.

Recovery and opportunities

As sales in 2020 are expected to be high in Norway, due to travel restrictions and increased stress and anxiety, overall cigarette sales are expected to decline in 2021, as travel bans are lifted. This will allow consumers to continue visiting Sweden to stockpile cigarettes, where price-points are lower than in the neighbouring country.

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