Volume sales of cigarettes are expected to decline further over the forecast period. There will be further increases in excise duty, until at least 2025, and this will encourage more smokers to give up, as cigarettes become even more expensive.
While cigarettes will register a further fall in volume sales over the forecast period, production is expected to increase. Serbia is a key exporter of cigarettes and benefits from its central European location, as well as low production costs.
Inflation was very high in 2022 and if this continues over the forecast period, this will dampen volume demand. Salaries are not high in Serbia and consumers will be sensitive to any retail price rises on top of hefty tax hikes, with further excise duty hikes planned up to 2025.
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Understand the latest market trends and future growth opportunities for the Cigarettes industry in Serbia with research from Euromonitor International's team of in-country analysts – experts by industry and geographic specialisation.
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RETAIL SALES OF DUTY PAID CIGARETTES The definition of cigarettes for the purposes of this study is duty-paid, machine manufactured white-stick products. This does not exclude brands of cigarettes that do not use white paper but it is designed to exclude the volume of non-machine manufactured products such as bidis/beedis (India) and papirosy (Russia), and other smoking products made with tobacco but that either do not resemble cigarettes as recognised in the US or Europe, or those that are not machine manufactured. The exclusion of these products is intended to give a more accurate picture of the "true" market for cigarettes and cigars which has been distorted in official statistics and published reports because of the inclusion of hybrid products. NB Please note that due to its central importance and integration into the industry mainstream, Indonesia’s market data does include hand-rolled kreteks DUTY-FREE sales are excluded from retail sales, as are herbal cigarettes. ILLICIT TRADE CIGARETTES Not included in retail sales, but split out separately in volume terms only. Defined as non-duty paid cigarettes (includes smuggled & counterfeit/fake products combined). Legitimate cross-border sales are considered duty-paid. Sales arising from a foreign national purchasing cheaper cigarettes in bulk in a neighbouring country for personal use and exported back are attributed to the country where the purchase is made (e.g. bulk cigarette sales by British nationals in France are attributed to France).See All of Our Definitions
This report originates from Passport, our Cigarettes research and analysis database.
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