Rising health awareness remained the primary driver of the growth slowdown in volume sales of cigarettes in 2021, with an increasing number of smokers switching to electronic cigarettes. Moreover, price hikes caused by a rise in excise duty gave smokers an additional incentive to quit or cut down.
The main increasing trend in cigarettes remains the growing shift of smokers to cheaper brands due to rising price sensitivity driven by economy hardship. Indeed, over the review period, following multiple price increases, ITG with its flagship brand Gauloises Full (Blue, Aqua), took significant share from the historical leader in Algeria, Marlboro.
As the promotion of all tobacco products is strictly prohibited in Algeria, with the exception of private marketing communication events held at major hotels across the country, volume share in cigarettes is generally won or lost on the assessment of value for money (price/quality ratio) amongst consumers. In addition, cigarettes players have been very active over the last couple of years by launching new products.
The sales growth of cigarettes in Algeria is expected to remain positive over the course of the forecast period, although it will slow due to many factors, including multiple increases in excise duty causing prices hikes, growing illicit trade, anti-smoking campaigns and the rising trend of smokers switching to vapour products. Nevertheless, these factors are unlikely to have a strong impact on the smoking population.
High-tar cigarettes are set to continue dominating volume sales as they are the most economic and popular types of cigarettes in the country. The majority of regular cigarette smokers in Algeria are men rather than women.
The levied tax multiple increases over the review period have had a negative impact on unit prices. As a result, consumers are predicted to continue shifting to cheaper brands over the forecast period.
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RETAIL SALES OF DUTY PAID CIGARETTES The definition of cigarettes for the purposes of this study is duty-paid, machine manufactured white-stick products. This does not exclude brands of cigarettes that do not use white paper but it is designed to exclude the volume of non-machine manufactured products such as bidis/beedis (India) and papirosy (Russia), and other smoking products made with tobacco but that either do not resemble cigarettes as recognised in the US or Europe, or those that are not machine manufactured. The exclusion of these products is intended to give a more accurate picture of the "true" market for cigarettes and cigars which has been distorted in official statistics and published reports because of the inclusion of hybrid products. NB Please note that due to its central importance and integration into the industry mainstream, Indonesia’s market data does include hand-rolled kreteks DUTY-FREE sales are excluded from retail sales, as are herbal cigarettes. ILLICIT TRADE CIGARETTES Not included in retail sales, but split out separately in volume terms only. Defined as non-duty paid cigarettes (includes smuggled & counterfeit/fake products combined). Legitimate cross-border sales are considered duty-paid. Sales arising from a foreign national purchasing cheaper cigarettes in bulk in a neighbouring country for personal use and exported back are attributed to the country where the purchase is made (e.g. bulk cigarette sales by British nationals in France are attributed to France).See All of Our Definitions
This report originates from Passport, our Cigarettes research and analysis database.
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