Smoking prevalence among the adult population in Pakistan decreased slightly in 2021 amid ongoing attempts by the government to lower it by issuing tax hikes, notably raising the average unit price of cigarettes per stick. The price increases caused consumers of cigarettes to shift towards cheaper brands in 2021.
Pakistan Tobacco Company Ltd continued to grow its dominant share of the highly-concentrated category of cigarettes in 2021. Meanwhile, second-placed player Philip Morris (Pakistan) Ltd’s retail volume share declined slightly further in 2021, continuing to be eroded by the ongoing success of Pakistan Tobacco Company’s more affordably priced Capstan By Pall Mall.
Value sales of cigarettes in current terms continued to rise in 2021. The government in Pakistan has been continuously imposing taxes on cigarettes.
With tax hikes expected to continue over the forecast period, the price differential between illicit and legal cigarettes will continue to widen, resulting in further declines for retail volume sales. On the other hand, illicit trade is predicted to strengthen its penetration of the market and gain greater share from the legal segment in the absence of the implementation of an effective track and trace system.
With the increased availability of flavours and filters and increased female labour force participation, many women are getting greater exposure to cigarettes. There has been an increase in the number of female smokers over time.
There is still no legislation in Pakistan to limit the tar yield per cigarette and none is expected to be introduced over the forecast period. Therefore, high tar cigarettes will remain readily available in the country for the foreseeable future.
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RETAIL SALES OF DUTY PAID CIGARETTES The definition of cigarettes for the purposes of this study is duty-paid, machine manufactured white-stick products. This does not exclude brands of cigarettes that do not use white paper but it is designed to exclude the volume of non-machine manufactured products such as bidis/beedis (India) and papirosy (Russia), and other smoking products made with tobacco but that either do not resemble cigarettes as recognised in the US or Europe, or those that are not machine manufactured. The exclusion of these products is intended to give a more accurate picture of the "true" market for cigarettes and cigars which has been distorted in official statistics and published reports because of the inclusion of hybrid products. NB Please note that due to its central importance and integration into the industry mainstream, Indonesia’s market data does include hand-rolled kreteks DUTY-FREE sales are excluded from retail sales, as are herbal cigarettes. ILLICIT TRADE CIGARETTES Not included in retail sales, but split out separately in volume terms only. Defined as non-duty paid cigarettes (includes smuggled & counterfeit/fake products combined). Legitimate cross-border sales are considered duty-paid. Sales arising from a foreign national purchasing cheaper cigarettes in bulk in a neighbouring country for personal use and exported back are attributed to the country where the purchase is made (e.g. bulk cigarette sales by British nationals in France are attributed to France).See All of Our Definitions
This report originates from Passport, our Cigarettes research and analysis database.
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