Retail sales of cigarettes are predicted to continue to decline in volume terms during the forecast period, thanks to growing health concerns amongst the Finnish population, which were exacerbated by the COVID-19 crisis. Moreover, the image of smoking continues to change, partly as a result of the way in which it is increasingly associated with low-income, poorly-educated consumers.
The revised Tobacco Act, adopted in May 2022, will also have an impact on the performance of the category, notably, the adoption of plain packaging all tobacco products and the expansion of the smoking ban to include playgrounds and public beaches. While it is still too early to estimate the effects of the plain packaging law, it may serve to reduce the appeal of tobacco products, particularly amongst young people, and could ultimately lead to a further decline in smoking prevalence.
Heated tobacco was expected to enter the Finnish market during 2022. In anticipation of this development, the Finnish government created a new tax category for heated tobacco products.
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RETAIL SALES OF DUTY PAID CIGARETTES The definition of cigarettes for the purposes of this study is duty-paid, machine manufactured white-stick products. This does not exclude brands of cigarettes that do not use white paper but it is designed to exclude the volume of non-machine manufactured products such as bidis/beedis (India) and papirosy (Russia), and other smoking products made with tobacco but that either do not resemble cigarettes as recognised in the US or Europe, or those that are not machine manufactured. The exclusion of these products is intended to give a more accurate picture of the "true" market for cigarettes and cigars which has been distorted in official statistics and published reports because of the inclusion of hybrid products. NB Please note that due to its central importance and integration into the industry mainstream, Indonesia’s market data does include hand-rolled kreteks DUTY-FREE sales are excluded from retail sales, as are herbal cigarettes. ILLICIT TRADE CIGARETTES Not included in retail sales, but split out separately in volume terms only. Defined as non-duty paid cigarettes (includes smuggled & counterfeit/fake products combined). Legitimate cross-border sales are considered duty-paid. Sales arising from a foreign national purchasing cheaper cigarettes in bulk in a neighbouring country for personal use and exported back are attributed to the country where the purchase is made (e.g. bulk cigarette sales by British nationals in France are attributed to France).See All of Our Definitions
This report originates from Passport, our Cigarettes research and analysis database.
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