Cigarettes is expected to see a continuous decline in retail volume sales in the forecast period, due to a rapidly ageing population and rising health concerns, coupled with a shift to heated tobacco. In addition, in the Tax Commission held in December 2022 by the ruling party, it was decided to increase three taxes – corporate tax, income tax, and tobacco tax – to finance an increase in the national defence budget.
While inflation is expected to ease in the forecast period, the prices of commodities are expected to keep rising, especially in the early forecast period. According to Euromonitor International’s Macro Model, the inflation rate is expected to be 2.
The Japanese government decided to downgrade the legal status of COVID-19 to “Class 5”, the level of common infectious disease, from 8 May 2023. This will categorise COVID-19 in the same way as seasonal influenza, which will lead to a loosening of infection control measures against the virus.
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Understand the latest market trends and future growth opportunities for the Cigarettes industry in Japan with research from Euromonitor International's team of in-country analysts – experts by industry and geographic specialisation.
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Cigarettes
RETAIL SALES OF DUTY PAID CIGARETTES The definition of cigarettes for the purposes of this study is duty-paid, machine manufactured white-stick products. This does not exclude brands of cigarettes that do not use white paper but it is designed to exclude the volume of non-machine manufactured products such as bidis/beedis (India) and papirosy (Russia), and other smoking products made with tobacco but that either do not resemble cigarettes as recognised in the US or Europe, or those that are not machine manufactured. The exclusion of these products is intended to give a more accurate picture of the "true" market for cigarettes and cigars which has been distorted in official statistics and published reports because of the inclusion of hybrid products. NB Please note that due to its central importance and integration into the industry mainstream, Indonesia’s market data does include hand-rolled kreteks DUTY-FREE sales are excluded from retail sales, as are herbal cigarettes. ILLICIT TRADE CIGARETTES Not included in retail sales, but split out separately in volume terms only. Defined as non-duty paid cigarettes (includes smuggled & counterfeit/fake products combined). Legitimate cross-border sales are considered duty-paid. Sales arising from a foreign national purchasing cheaper cigarettes in bulk in a neighbouring country for personal use and exported back are attributed to the country where the purchase is made (e.g. bulk cigarette sales by British nationals in France are attributed to France).
See All of Our DefinitionsThis report originates from Passport, our Cigarettes research and analysis database.
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