Cigarettes showed small positive growth in 2021, following a sequence of negative figure declines over the review period which dropped more sharply in 2019-2020. This decline is attributed to the rise of illicit trade during the era of the pandemic, as consumers sought out ways to economise during this uncertain time.
The Uzbekistan government is active in anti-smoking campaigns, but the impact remains questionable. On 28 May 2021, alongside the Ministry of Health in Uzbekistan, the Office of the UN Resident Coordinator in Uzbekistan and the Uzbekistan Medical Students’ Association (UzMSA Phenomenon), launched the “Commit to Quit” nationwide campaign online in association with World No Tobacco Day, with the aim of expanding access to services for those looking to quit tobacco.
Overall, tobacco in Uzbekistan is dominated by the trio of global heavyweights – British American Tobacco Uzbekistan (UZBAT), Philip Morris International Inc, and Japan Tobacco Inc. These significant players have a variety of brands in various price segments, thus able to cater to a wide range of smoking consumers.
Sales of cigarettes are expected to show gradual further declines over the forecast period, with growing competition from heated tobacco products and illicit trade standing behind this trend. The government is also planning to further increase the level of excise duty on cigarettes, thus making illicit variants even more attractive to price-sensitive smokers.
The government will continue looking for the ways to control illicit trade in the country. Smuggled cigarettes grew in popularity during the time of the pandemic, and many consumers who switched to these cheaper variants have continued to follow this trend.
When it comes to the sales points of cigarettes, kiosks and small shops will remain the major channels, with limited opportunities for change over the forecast period. This goes along with the general retail trend, with the major concentration of supermarkets on behalf of key retail chains.
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RETAIL SALES OF DUTY PAID CIGARETTES The definition of cigarettes for the purposes of this study is duty-paid, machine manufactured white-stick products. This does not exclude brands of cigarettes that do not use white paper but it is designed to exclude the volume of non-machine manufactured products such as bidis/beedis (India) and papirosy (Russia), and other smoking products made with tobacco but that either do not resemble cigarettes as recognised in the US or Europe, or those that are not machine manufactured. The exclusion of these products is intended to give a more accurate picture of the "true" market for cigarettes and cigars which has been distorted in official statistics and published reports because of the inclusion of hybrid products. NB Please note that due to its central importance and integration into the industry mainstream, Indonesia’s market data does include hand-rolled kreteks DUTY-FREE sales are excluded from retail sales, as are herbal cigarettes. ILLICIT TRADE CIGARETTES Not included in retail sales, but split out separately in volume terms only. Defined as non-duty paid cigarettes (includes smuggled & counterfeit/fake products combined). Legitimate cross-border sales are considered duty-paid. Sales arising from a foreign national purchasing cheaper cigarettes in bulk in a neighbouring country for personal use and exported back are attributed to the country where the purchase is made (e.g. bulk cigarette sales by British nationals in France are attributed to France).See All of Our Definitions
This report originates from Passport, our Cigarettes research and analysis database.
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