Executive Summary

Jul 2019
PROSPECTS
Economy cigarettes gain the most as volume sales keep declining with higher taxes

Volume sales of cigarettes declined in Thailand for the third consecutive year in 2018, albeit at a lower rate than what was seen in the previous year, immediately after the new excise taxes took effect. The economy cigarettes segment, which already accounted for nearly three quarters of licit cigarette sales, saw the highest volume growth again as a result of the new tax legislation, which encouraged consumer down trading.

Rising prices exacerbate the already declining trend for taking up smoking

Demand for cigarettes is expected to continue declining, not only due to the tax hikes but also due to anti-smoking campaigns and wider understanding of the harms of cigarette smoking, which will continue to suppress demand. Mainly as a result of changing attitudes towards smoking, younger consumers are less likely to start smoking than their elders were when they were younger.

Cigarette manufacturers aiming to diversify to offset lower demand for cigarettes

The forecast period is set to see a diversifying trend amongst cigarette manufacturers towards other tobacco products as a way to compensate for ongoing loss of demand for increasingly costly cigarettes in all price bands. With its new authority, the TOAT is expected to increase its exports and to produce more fine cut tobacco.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
TOAT hit hard by tax hikes

Tobacco Authority of Thailand (TOAT), the country’s sole domestic manufacturer of cigarettes, continued to hold the leading value share in 2018, but its volume share plunged by double digits over the year as a result of the tax levy increase of 40% on cigarette packs priced at THB60 or more and a 20% increase on cheaper packs. Because the domestic manufacturer was unable to lower its prices due to the high cost of Thai tobacco, manufacturing and overhead, it lost share to its main competitor Philip Morris.

Philip Morris nearly doubles volume sales after excise tax changes

Philip Morris (Thailand), the country’s dominant importer of cigarettes, was able to increase its volume sales by nearly 50% at TOAT’s expense in 2018, partially because it, like other foreign manufacturers, was able to lower its prices despite higher taxes. Prices of domestically produced cigarettes increased while that of some imported cigarettes decreased and, given a similar price range, consumers generally preferred the imported cigarettes.

Health campaigns and higher prices will more effectively deter younger smokers

Efforts to deter teenagers from starting to smoke continue in the form of various government-supported campaigns. Although in 2017 the Thai government raised the legal smoking age from 18 to 20, lax enforcement of age verification rules makes it unlikely this this legislation will have a significant impact on sales of cigarettes.

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Cigarettes in Thailand

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Overview

Discover the latest market trends and uncover sources of future market growth for the Cigarettes industry in Thailand with research from Euromonitor's team of in-country analysts.

Find hidden opportunities in the most current research data available, understand competitive threats with our detailed market analysis, and plan your corporate strategy with our expert qualitative analysis and growth projections.

If you're in the Cigarettes industry in Thailand, our research will save you time and money while empowering you to make informed, profitable decisions.

The Cigarettes in Thailand market research report includes:

  • Analysis of key supply-side and demand trends
  • Detailed segmentation of international and local products
  • Historic volumes and values, company and brand market shares
  • Five year forecasts of market trends and market growth
  • Production, imports, and exports of finished cigarettes
  • Robust and transparent market research methodology, conducted in-country

Our market research reports answer questions such as:

  • What is the market size of Cigarettes in Thailand?
  • What are the major brands in Thailand?
  • What is the legislative environment like in Thailand?
  • What are the rates of cigarette taxation in Thailand?
  • Do premium, mid-price or economy cigarettes dominate in Thailand?
  • What is the rate of illicit trade in Thailand?
  • How many smokers are there in the country?

Why buy this report?

  • Gain competitive intelligence about market leaders
  • Track key industry trends, opportunities and threats
  • Inform your marketing, brand, strategy and market development, sales and supply functions

This industry report originates from Passport, our Tobacco market research database.

Cigarettes in Thailand - Category analysis

HEADLINES

PROSPECTS

Economy cigarettes gain the most as volume sales keep declining with higher taxes
Rising prices exacerbate the already declining trend for taking up smoking
Cigarette manufacturers aiming to diversify to offset lower demand for cigarettes

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

TOAT hit hard by tax hikes
Philip Morris nearly doubles volume sales after excise tax changes
Health campaigns and higher prices will more effectively deter younger smokers

TAXATION AND PRICING

Taxation rates
Summary 1 Taxation and Duty Levies 2012-2017
Average cigarette pack price breakdown
Summary 2 Average Cigarette Pack Price Breakdown: Brand Examples

CATEGORY DATA

Table 1 Sales of Cigarettes: Volume 2013-2018
Table 2 Sales of Cigarettes by Category: Value 2013-2018
Table 3 Sales of Cigarettes: % Volume Growth 2013-2018
Table 4 Sales of Cigarettes by Category: % Value Growth 2013-2018
Table 5 Sales of Cigarettes by Blend: % Volume 2013-2018
Table 6 Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol/Capsule: % Volume 2013-2018
Table 7 Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim/Microslim: % Volume 2013-2018
Table 8 Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume 2013-2018
Table 9 Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume 2013-2018
Table 10 NBO Company Shares of Cigarettes: % Volume 2014-2018
Table 11 LBN Brand Shares of Cigarettes: % Volume 2015-2018
Table 12 Sales of Cigarettes by Distribution Format: % Volume 2013-2018
Table 13 Illicit Trade Estimate of Cigarettes: Volume 2013-2018
Table 14 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes: Volume 2018-2023
Table 15 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Category: Value 2018-2023
Table 16 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes: % Volume Growth 2018-2023
Table 17 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Category: % Value Growth 2018-2023
Table 18 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Blend: % Volume 2018-2023
Table 19 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Standard/Menthol/Capsule: % Volume 2018-2023
Table 20 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Regular/Slim/Superslim/Microslim: % Volume 2018-2023
Table 21 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Pack Size: % Volume 2018-2023
Table 22 Forecast Sales of Cigarettes by Price Band: % Volume 2018-2023

Tobacco in Thailand - Industry Overview

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Value boosted by higher taxes while smokers trade down to low-priced smoking tobacco
State-owned monopoly incorporated as Tobacco Authority of Thailand
Pricing advantage helps Philip Morris gain on sole domestic cigarette manufacturer
Independent small grocers benefit from widespread presence and single stick sales
Tax-related pricing issues and plain packaging will determine future direction

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

Legislation
Legislative overview
Summary 3 Legislation Summary at a Glance
Smoking prevalence
Plain packaging
Point-of-sale display bans
Smoking in Public Places
Flavoured tobacco product ban
Vapour products

PRODUCTION/IMPORTS/EXPORTS

MARKET INDICATORS

Table 23 Number of Adult Smokers by Gender 2013-2018

MARKET DATA

Table 24 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2013-2018
Table 25 Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2013-2018
Table 26 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2013-2018
Table 27 Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2013-2018
Table 28 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Volume 2018-2023
Table 29 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: Value 2018-2023
Table 30 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Volume Growth 2018-2023
Table 31 Forecast Sales of Tobacco by Category: % Value Growth 2018-2023

SOURCES

Summary 4 Research Sources