Health and wellness trends will continue to shape consumer behaviour relating to smoking over the forecast period. The COVID-19 crisis bolstered the rise in consumer health awareness, particularly in relation to respiratory health.
Unit prices of cigarettes are set to continue to rise over the forecast period according to the current legislation schedule and are likely to go on increasing as excise law and other regulations are geared towards the eradication of cigarette smoking and consumption of other combustible tobacco products and replacing them with less harmful and non-combustible products. As a result of this strict regulation and the strong rises in unit prices, smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption will decline.
The early part of the forecast period is set to see further moderate growth in the illicit trade in cigarettes. After having declined steadily in the previous three years, illicit trade in cigarettes in North Macedonia increased in volume terms in 2021.
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RETAIL SALES OF DUTY PAID CIGARETTES The definition of cigarettes for the purposes of this study is duty-paid, machine manufactured white-stick products. This does not exclude brands of cigarettes that do not use white paper but it is designed to exclude the volume of non-machine manufactured products such as bidis/beedis (India) and papirosy (Russia), and other smoking products made with tobacco but that either do not resemble cigarettes as recognised in the US or Europe, or those that are not machine manufactured. The exclusion of these products is intended to give a more accurate picture of the "true" market for cigarettes and cigars which has been distorted in official statistics and published reports because of the inclusion of hybrid products. NB Please note that due to its central importance and integration into the industry mainstream, Indonesia’s market data does include hand-rolled kreteks DUTY-FREE sales are excluded from retail sales, as are herbal cigarettes. ILLICIT TRADE CIGARETTES Not included in retail sales, but split out separately in volume terms only. Defined as non-duty paid cigarettes (includes smuggled & counterfeit/fake products combined). Legitimate cross-border sales are considered duty-paid. Sales arising from a foreign national purchasing cheaper cigarettes in bulk in a neighbouring country for personal use and exported back are attributed to the country where the purchase is made (e.g. bulk cigarette sales by British nationals in France are attributed to France).See All of Our Definitions
This report originates from Passport, our Cigarettes research and analysis database.
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