Retail volume sales of cigarettes in Bosnia and Herzegovina declined in 2021, maintaining the negative trajectory witnessed throughout the review period. The main reason for the persistent contraction of the category in this regard over recent years has been rising health-consciousness among the population, which is increasingly leading smokers to quit or cut down and making young people less likely to take up the habit to begin with.
After rising rapidly in line with excise tax hikes over the first half of the review period, illicit trade in cigarettes contracted sharply in volume terms in 2020 due to border closures and domestic lockdown measures imposed to curb the spread of COVID-19. It continued to fall in 2021, partly due to sustained efforts by local authorities to crack down on smuggling and informal selling, but also because of the downward trend in smoking prevalence.
Philip Morris maintained its commanding lead in cigarettes in retail volume sales terms in 2021 thanks to a broad portfolio that features a variety of product types, covers multiple price points and includes well regarded global brands like Marlboro, Bond Street, Chesterfield and Eve. With a number of its most popular products outperforming the category as a whole, the company’s volume share was up slightly on 2020.
Retail volume sales of cigarettes look set to decline consistently throughout the forecast period. This is mainly due to the trend towards healthier lifestyles in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which will drive more smokers to cut down, quit altogether or switch to alternatives that are seen as less harmful, primarily e-vapour products and heated tobacco.
After more than 140 years in business, in March 2022 the Sarajevo Tobacco Factory – most recently operated by FDS and the last major facility of its kind in Bosnia and Herzegovina – ceased production and began liquidation proceedings. According to the supervisory board of Badeco Adria, majority owner of the factory, the decision to shut down was taken after accumulated losses of BAM7.
Volume sales of illicit cigarettes are expected to decline gradually over the forecast period, albeit at a slightly slower pace than those of legal products. This is primarily because the total number of cigarette smokers in Bosnia and Herzegovina will continue to fall in line with rising health-consciousness and migration to alternatives such as e-vapour products.
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RETAIL SALES OF DUTY PAID CIGARETTES The definition of cigarettes for the purposes of this study is duty-paid, machine manufactured white-stick products. This does not exclude brands of cigarettes that do not use white paper but it is designed to exclude the volume of non-machine manufactured products such as bidis/beedis (India) and papirosy (Russia), and other smoking products made with tobacco but that either do not resemble cigarettes as recognised in the US or Europe, or those that are not machine manufactured. The exclusion of these products is intended to give a more accurate picture of the "true" market for cigarettes and cigars which has been distorted in official statistics and published reports because of the inclusion of hybrid products. NB Please note that due to its central importance and integration into the industry mainstream, Indonesia’s market data does include hand-rolled kreteks DUTY-FREE sales are excluded from retail sales, as are herbal cigarettes. ILLICIT TRADE CIGARETTES Not included in retail sales, but split out separately in volume terms only. Defined as non-duty paid cigarettes (includes smuggled & counterfeit/fake products combined). Legitimate cross-border sales are considered duty-paid. Sales arising from a foreign national purchasing cheaper cigarettes in bulk in a neighbouring country for personal use and exported back are attributed to the country where the purchase is made (e.g. bulk cigarette sales by British nationals in France are attributed to France).See All of Our Definitions
This report originates from Passport, our Cigarettes research and analysis database.
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