Despite the decline seen earlier in the review period, 2022 saw an increase in cigarette consumption and rise in daily smoking prevalence. This is linked to the better performance of off-trade sales, which saw recovery in comparison to previous years when imports costs were historically high.
As a result of the exponential growth in cigarette smuggling in recent years, companies have recalibrated their offerings in order to improve sales margins and are instead focusing on premium offerings. This will continue over the forecast period and will see brands such as Lucky Strike and Marlboro gain further value share.
Younger consumers and new smokers are expected to be more attracted by e-vapour products, as opposed to traditional cigarettes. In 2022, there was also a significant boost in distribution.
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Cigarettes
RETAIL SALES OF DUTY PAID CIGARETTES The definition of cigarettes for the purposes of this study is duty-paid, machine manufactured white-stick products. This does not exclude brands of cigarettes that do not use white paper but it is designed to exclude the volume of non-machine manufactured products such as bidis/beedis (India) and papirosy (Russia), and other smoking products made with tobacco but that either do not resemble cigarettes as recognised in the US or Europe, or those that are not machine manufactured. The exclusion of these products is intended to give a more accurate picture of the "true" market for cigarettes and cigars which has been distorted in official statistics and published reports because of the inclusion of hybrid products. NB Please note that due to its central importance and integration into the industry mainstream, Indonesia’s market data does include hand-rolled kreteks DUTY-FREE sales are excluded from retail sales, as are herbal cigarettes. ILLICIT TRADE CIGARETTES Not included in retail sales, but split out separately in volume terms only. Defined as non-duty paid cigarettes (includes smuggled & counterfeit/fake products combined). Legitimate cross-border sales are considered duty-paid. Sales arising from a foreign national purchasing cheaper cigarettes in bulk in a neighbouring country for personal use and exported back are attributed to the country where the purchase is made (e.g. bulk cigarette sales by British nationals in France are attributed to France).
See All of Our DefinitionsThis report originates from Passport, our Cigarettes research and analysis database.
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