Cigarettes registered a significant volume decline in 2021, on par with the volume decline registered in 2020. This is due to a continued decline of the smoking population, due both to a general decline in population and also more people giving up smoking.
On the whole, Estonian smokers continued to be loyal to their preferred brands in 2021. Also, the ban on flavoured tobacco products from May 2020 has led to a lack of new product development.
Cigarettes became even more expensive at the beginning of 2021, with a further increase in excise duty. As consumers are becoming more price-sensitive due to growing inflation, this excise increase also contributed to further decline in volume sales.
Cigarettes will continue to see a fall in volume sales over the forecast period. Several factors will contribute to this decline.
Heated tobacco products could well be the new battleground among players and cigarettes could suffer as a result. Global players are shifting their focus from cigarettes to heated tobacco products, which are not available in the country yet because of law restrictions.
There will be limited product launches over the forecast period. Any differentiation will probably be in the form of larger pack offerings and variation with stick sizes.
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RETAIL SALES OF DUTY PAID CIGARETTES The definition of cigarettes for the purposes of this study is duty-paid, machine manufactured white-stick products. This does not exclude brands of cigarettes that do not use white paper but it is designed to exclude the volume of non-machine manufactured products such as bidis/beedis (India) and papirosy (Russia), and other smoking products made with tobacco but that either do not resemble cigarettes as recognised in the US or Europe, or those that are not machine manufactured. The exclusion of these products is intended to give a more accurate picture of the "true" market for cigarettes and cigars which has been distorted in official statistics and published reports because of the inclusion of hybrid products. NB Please note that due to its central importance and integration into the industry mainstream, Indonesia’s market data does include hand-rolled kreteks DUTY-FREE sales are excluded from retail sales, as are herbal cigarettes. ILLICIT TRADE CIGARETTES Not included in retail sales, but split out separately in volume terms only. Defined as non-duty paid cigarettes (includes smuggled & counterfeit/fake products combined). Legitimate cross-border sales are considered duty-paid. Sales arising from a foreign national purchasing cheaper cigarettes in bulk in a neighbouring country for personal use and exported back are attributed to the country where the purchase is made (e.g. bulk cigarette sales by British nationals in France are attributed to France).See All of Our Definitions
This report originates from Passport, our Cigarettes research and analysis database.
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