Cigarettes in Estonia

PRE-COVID-19 PERFORMANCE

Health trend and tighter legislation reduce smoking prevalence, while increase in illicit trade poses another challenge to cigarettes in 2019

Cigarettes sales volumes continued to shrink in 2019 as a result of a significant number of people either quitting smoking or not even starting to smoke. With the birth rate low and declining and population growth slow, demand was also negatively affected by the healthy lifestyle trend in Estonia resulting in an increase in demand for other types of smoking such as heated tobacco products.

New product development is mainly limited to brand extensions, while companies utilise their established brands to compete in an ever-more restrictive environment in 2019

Regular Estonian smokers continued to be loyal to their preferred brands in 2019. Moreover, graphic health warnings on cigarette packs and advertising restrictions have made it very difficult for manufacturers to attract consumers of rival brands.

During 2019, heated tobacco products make the future of cigarettes uncertain and channel shares are migrating

Company and brand activities in Estonia remained frugal in 2019. Despite a few new launches, mainly brand extensions, cigarette manufacturers refrained from investing more in Estonian tobacco as in global terms they are shifting their focus from cigarettes to heated tobacco products, which are not available in the country yet because of law restrictions.

2020 AND BEYOND

COVID-19 impact

In 2020, sales of cigarettes are now expected to decrease slightly in constant 2019 value terms in light of the impact of COVID-19. This compares to a 3% fall in sales forecast in our 2019 edition of tobacco.

Recovery and opportunities

Smoking rates usually increase during economic downturns, such as the 2008 global financial crisis, as smokers rely on cigarettes to get them through any stress and strain, despite the economic outlay. However, Estonian consumers are not only about to enter a period of economic hardship but are also increasingly concerned about health.

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