Having been little better than static in 2020, retail volume sales of cigarettes expanded at a more rapid pace during 2021. Having peaked a decade ago, smoking prevalence is in gradual long-term decline.
In current value terms, the unit price of cigarettes rose by a quarter in 2021 – its fastest pace in well over a decade, underpinning strong growth in retail constant value sales (2021 prices). This hike in pricing was mainly driven by a sharp decline in the foreign-exchange value of the local currency.
Rapidly rising prices led some more price-sensitive smokers to trade down from premium cigarettes to mid-price and economy offerings. This served to deepen a trend that had been in evidence throughout the review period.
A rising population (Nigeria has one of the highest fertility rates in the world) and urbanisation will support moderate growth in retail volume sales of cigarettes during the forecast period, in spite of the fact that smoking prevalence will continue to decline. While premium brands will remain the most popular option, they will continue to lose retail volume share to economy and particularly mid-price offerings.
Following the example of some other countries, restrictions on the sale of menthol cigarettes could be introduced in Nigeria during the forecast period. The technical committee of the Standards Organisation of Nigeria has proposed a ban on the use of ‘characterising flavours’ in cigarettes (including menthol), but it remains some way from approval, let alone implementation.
Although the retail volume share of premium cigarettes is in decline, super premium brands are growing in popularity. This trend is set to extend into the forecast period.
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Understand the latest market trends and future growth opportunities for the Cigarettes industry in Nigeria with research from Euromonitor International's team of in-country analysts – experts by industry and geographic specialisation.
Key trends are clearly and succinctly summarised alongside the most current research data available. Understand and assess competitive threats and plan corporate strategy with our qualitative analysis, insight and confident growth projections.
If you're in the Cigarettes industry in Nigeria, our research will help you to make informed, intelligent decisions; to recognise and profit from opportunity, or to offer resilience amidst market uncertainty.
RETAIL SALES OF DUTY PAID CIGARETTES The definition of cigarettes for the purposes of this study is duty-paid, machine manufactured white-stick products. This does not exclude brands of cigarettes that do not use white paper but it is designed to exclude the volume of non-machine manufactured products such as bidis/beedis (India) and papirosy (Russia), and other smoking products made with tobacco but that either do not resemble cigarettes as recognised in the US or Europe, or those that are not machine manufactured. The exclusion of these products is intended to give a more accurate picture of the "true" market for cigarettes and cigars which has been distorted in official statistics and published reports because of the inclusion of hybrid products. NB Please note that due to its central importance and integration into the industry mainstream, Indonesia’s market data does include hand-rolled kreteks DUTY-FREE sales are excluded from retail sales, as are herbal cigarettes. ILLICIT TRADE CIGARETTES Not included in retail sales, but split out separately in volume terms only. Defined as non-duty paid cigarettes (includes smuggled & counterfeit/fake products combined). Legitimate cross-border sales are considered duty-paid. Sales arising from a foreign national purchasing cheaper cigarettes in bulk in a neighbouring country for personal use and exported back are attributed to the country where the purchase is made (e.g. bulk cigarette sales by British nationals in France are attributed to France).See All of Our Definitions
This report originates from Passport, our Cigarettes research and analysis database.
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