Cigarettes saw a further retail volume decline in 2021 due to the general decrease in smoking prevalence in the country. Even before the pandemic, demand for cigarettes was waning in the face of rising health awareness, increasingly strict regulation around marketing activities, the extended public smoking ban and increased taxation.
With an extensive and diverse product portfolio, leading player JTI Sweden continued to gain share in Sweden in 2021. Its portfolio ranging across all price platforms, makes the company more robust to up and down-trading by consumers, allowing it to maintain company loyalty if not brand loyalty.
The Second EU Tobacco Products Directive (EUTPD2) bans all flavoured tobacco and cigarettes, regardless of whether the flavour is added to the tobacco or found in the cigarette filter. The ban came into effect on 20 May 2020, meaning that flavour capsule (all flavours) and menthol (non-capsule) cigarettes have not been sold in Sweden since that date.
While the long-term retail volume trend for cigarettes in Sweden is clearly negative, 2022 retail volume sales are expected to be positive because of resuming cross-border trade with Norway. The reason for the resumption of cross-border trade is the lower prices of these products in Sweden compared with its neighbouring country Norway.
In the forecast period, consumers will increasingly shift away from cigarettes altogether as the health implications of tobacco and nicotine use become clearer and overall health and wellness takes higher priority than previously enjoyed. There are also set to be a larger number of options for those seeking smokeless products.
E-commerce adoption has accelerated significantly in Sweden during the pandemic, with cigarettes being a routine purchase along with other groceries. With consumers having become accustomed to shopping online over the last couple of years, they are likely to continue to do so in the future.
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RETAIL SALES OF DUTY PAID CIGARETTES The definition of cigarettes for the purposes of this study is duty-paid, machine manufactured white-stick products. This does not exclude brands of cigarettes that do not use white paper but it is designed to exclude the volume of non-machine manufactured products such as bidis/beedis (India) and papirosy (Russia), and other smoking products made with tobacco but that either do not resemble cigarettes as recognised in the US or Europe, or those that are not machine manufactured. The exclusion of these products is intended to give a more accurate picture of the "true" market for cigarettes and cigars which has been distorted in official statistics and published reports because of the inclusion of hybrid products. NB Please note that due to its central importance and integration into the industry mainstream, Indonesia’s market data does include hand-rolled kreteks DUTY-FREE sales are excluded from retail sales, as are herbal cigarettes. ILLICIT TRADE CIGARETTES Not included in retail sales, but split out separately in volume terms only. Defined as non-duty paid cigarettes (includes smuggled & counterfeit/fake products combined). Legitimate cross-border sales are considered duty-paid. Sales arising from a foreign national purchasing cheaper cigarettes in bulk in a neighbouring country for personal use and exported back are attributed to the country where the purchase is made (e.g. bulk cigarette sales by British nationals in France are attributed to France).See All of Our Definitions
This report originates from Passport, our Cigarettes research and analysis database.
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