Cigarettes continued its downward trajectory in terms of retail volume sales in 2021. The rise in prices, due to the raising of excise tax in November 2021, was one of the reasons for this.
The illicit trade of cigarettes is also on the decline in Slovenia. Increased border control, established during the COVID-19 pandemic, is the main factor in this.
In 2021, Philip Morris doo, with its Marlboro brand, maintained its leading position among cigarette manufacturers in Slovenia. The brand enjoys high brand recognition and is widely available across all distribution channels.
Over the forecast period, cigarettes is expected to continue its downwards trajectory in terms of retail volume sales as the smoking population in Slovenia continues to decline over the coming years. However, retail volume declines will be offset by a steady increase in excise taxes on cigarettes which will lead to a gradual and consistent increase in retail current value sales over the forecast period.
Over the forecast period, the introduction of plain packaging laws will see consumers continuing to migrate to smokeless tobacco, e-vapour products and heated tobacco over the forecast period. The effects of plain packaging and stronger legislation on cigarettes undoubtedly had a negative impact on cigarettes in the review period and this trend will continue in the forecast period.
Despite a positive economic outlook, a significant number of cigarettes smokers is projected to switch over to cheaper tobacco products over the forecast period due to steadily increasing excise taxes. These tax increases which are expected to continue over the coming years, will affect the cigarette category disproportionately.
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RETAIL SALES OF DUTY PAID CIGARETTES The definition of cigarettes for the purposes of this study is duty-paid, machine manufactured white-stick products. This does not exclude brands of cigarettes that do not use white paper but it is designed to exclude the volume of non-machine manufactured products such as bidis/beedis (India) and papirosy (Russia), and other smoking products made with tobacco but that either do not resemble cigarettes as recognised in the US or Europe, or those that are not machine manufactured. The exclusion of these products is intended to give a more accurate picture of the "true" market for cigarettes and cigars which has been distorted in official statistics and published reports because of the inclusion of hybrid products. NB Please note that due to its central importance and integration into the industry mainstream, Indonesia’s market data does include hand-rolled kreteks DUTY-FREE sales are excluded from retail sales, as are herbal cigarettes. ILLICIT TRADE CIGARETTES Not included in retail sales, but split out separately in volume terms only. Defined as non-duty paid cigarettes (includes smuggled & counterfeit/fake products combined). Legitimate cross-border sales are considered duty-paid. Sales arising from a foreign national purchasing cheaper cigarettes in bulk in a neighbouring country for personal use and exported back are attributed to the country where the purchase is made (e.g. bulk cigarette sales by British nationals in France are attributed to France).See All of Our Definitions
This report originates from Passport, our Cigarettes research and analysis database.
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