Along with the end of the pandemic era of social isolation, working from home, and high stress levels, which pushed volume growth of cigarettes into marginally positive territory in 2020, will come consistent declines in cigarette volumes – in some years of the forecast period reaching double-digit declines. In addition to consumers quitting or switching to alternative tobacco products, dual-usage has significantly increased in tobacco, as some consumers have become more health-conscious since the pandemic and are trying to cut back – leading to the adoption of product choices consumers perceive as better for them alongside cigarettes, such as e-vapour products, nicotine pouches, and potentially heated tobacco, once it is relaunched in the US in 2023.
In April 2022, the FDA announced proposed product standards to prohibit menthol as a characterising flavour in cigarettes. As of 31 January 2023, the FDA was drafting the final rules, and is committed to completing this process in 2023.
There are multiple stances taken towards harm reduction in the tobacco industry. Most tobacco companies are divesting from cigarettes, while others are investing in new product development.
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RETAIL SALES OF DUTY PAID CIGARETTES The definition of cigarettes for the purposes of this study is duty-paid, machine manufactured white-stick products. This does not exclude brands of cigarettes that do not use white paper but it is designed to exclude the volume of non-machine manufactured products such as bidis/beedis (India) and papirosy (Russia), and other smoking products made with tobacco but that either do not resemble cigarettes as recognised in the US or Europe, or those that are not machine manufactured. The exclusion of these products is intended to give a more accurate picture of the "true" market for cigarettes and cigars which has been distorted in official statistics and published reports because of the inclusion of hybrid products. NB Please note that due to its central importance and integration into the industry mainstream, Indonesia’s market data does include hand-rolled kreteks DUTY-FREE sales are excluded from retail sales, as are herbal cigarettes. ILLICIT TRADE CIGARETTES Not included in retail sales, but split out separately in volume terms only. Defined as non-duty paid cigarettes (includes smuggled & counterfeit/fake products combined). Legitimate cross-border sales are considered duty-paid. Sales arising from a foreign national purchasing cheaper cigarettes in bulk in a neighbouring country for personal use and exported back are attributed to the country where the purchase is made (e.g. bulk cigarette sales by British nationals in France are attributed to France).See All of Our Definitions
This report originates from Passport, our Cigarettes research and analysis database.
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