Cigarettes registered an increase in volume sales in 2021, following from the slump in volume sales in 2020. As society opened up, increased socialising supported volume sales.
Illicit trade continued to negatively impact volume sales of cigarettes in Guatemala in 2021, accounting for over a quarter of volume sales. The sale of contraband has consistently risen over the review period and there is no indication that the situation will improve over the forecast period.
Tabacalera Centroamericana and British American Tobacco Caribbean & Central America retained their stronghold on cigarettes in Guatemala in 2021. Both offer flavour capsule cigarettes, which have become strong innovation drivers in the country.
Cigarettes are a mature product area, with little room for growth, as smoking prevalence continues to fall. The one area that is seeing innovation is flavoured cigarettes and flavoured cigarettes will drive volume growth over the forecast period, mainly driven by a new generation of smokers, and also female smokers.
Traditional cigarette consumption also faces ongoing challenges from ongoing product migration to e-vapour products. Younger consumers and new smokers are expected to be more attracted by such new offerings, as opposed to traditional cigarettes.
Cigarettes will register marginal volume growth over the forecast period. While smoking prevalence will drop slightly, a growing population will support volume sales.
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RETAIL SALES OF DUTY PAID CIGARETTES The definition of cigarettes for the purposes of this study is duty-paid, machine manufactured white-stick products. This does not exclude brands of cigarettes that do not use white paper but it is designed to exclude the volume of non-machine manufactured products such as bidis/beedis (India) and papirosy (Russia), and other smoking products made with tobacco but that either do not resemble cigarettes as recognised in the US or Europe, or those that are not machine manufactured. The exclusion of these products is intended to give a more accurate picture of the "true" market for cigarettes and cigars which has been distorted in official statistics and published reports because of the inclusion of hybrid products. NB Please note that due to its central importance and integration into the industry mainstream, Indonesia’s market data does include hand-rolled kreteks DUTY-FREE sales are excluded from retail sales, as are herbal cigarettes. ILLICIT TRADE CIGARETTES Not included in retail sales, but split out separately in volume terms only. Defined as non-duty paid cigarettes (includes smuggled & counterfeit/fake products combined). Legitimate cross-border sales are considered duty-paid. Sales arising from a foreign national purchasing cheaper cigarettes in bulk in a neighbouring country for personal use and exported back are attributed to the country where the purchase is made (e.g. bulk cigarette sales by British nationals in France are attributed to France).See All of Our Definitions
This report originates from Passport, our Cigarettes research and analysis database.
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