COVID-19 pulled consumers’ smoking habits in various directions in 2020. Indeed, SECCATID and its office Observatorio Nacional de Drogas (OND) conducted a survey mid-2020 to determine the effects of the pandemic in the consumption of different legal and illegal substances in the country.
Given the economic fallout of the pandemic, it is no surprise that illicit trade showed an increased prevalence in 2020. Indeed, illicit trade volume posted strong growth in 2020, surpassing the rate seen in 2019.
In 2020, distribution through e-commerce became more important for tobacco. Although this channel was still very small for the overall sales of tobacco, sales through it were accelerated due to the pandemic.
In 2021, cigarettes will return to moderate volume growth which will be sustained throughout the forecast period. While consumption of cigarettes is expected to continue growing over the forecast period, the increased health awareness, especially after the experience of the COVID-19 crisis, may result in changes in consumer behaviour.
In the forecast period, consumption will polarise in terms of price segmentation. On one end, illicit products and economy brands will continue benefiting from consumers looking for low-cost products.
Giving the growing competition and options available to consumers, it is expected that over the forecast period average unit prices will decrease. A lack of innovation will contribute to the dwindling unit prices, although the main factor supporting this trend will be the increased competition from substitute categories over the forecast period, such as heated tobacco.
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Understand the latest market trends and future growth opportunities for the Cigarettes industry in Guatemala with research from Euromonitor International's team of in-country analysts – experts by industry and geographic specialisation.
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This report originates from Passport, our Cigarettes research and analysis database.
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