In 2023, retail volume growth of cigarettes is expected to suffer from the unit price increases as consumers’ purchasing power remains constrained. High inflation will remain an issue putting pressure on household budgets, with pressure on the cost of living not expected to diminish before 2025.
Due to the strong efforts made by industry players and government authorities, the illicit trade is expected to remain low over the forecast period. The Romanian authorities and international players will aim to keep the level of illicit cigarette trade at under 10% of total cigarettes.
Lower purchasing power at the start of the forecast period will create room for growth among economy brands. The expected incremental rise in excise tax until 2026 will drive up average unit prices in the cigarette category, and will put pressure on smokers in low-income groups.
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RETAIL SALES OF DUTY PAID CIGARETTES The definition of cigarettes for the purposes of this study is duty-paid, machine manufactured white-stick products. This does not exclude brands of cigarettes that do not use white paper but it is designed to exclude the volume of non-machine manufactured products such as bidis/beedis (India) and papirosy (Russia), and other smoking products made with tobacco but that either do not resemble cigarettes as recognised in the US or Europe, or those that are not machine manufactured. The exclusion of these products is intended to give a more accurate picture of the "true" market for cigarettes and cigars which has been distorted in official statistics and published reports because of the inclusion of hybrid products. NB Please note that due to its central importance and integration into the industry mainstream, Indonesia’s market data does include hand-rolled kreteks DUTY-FREE sales are excluded from retail sales, as are herbal cigarettes. ILLICIT TRADE CIGARETTES Not included in retail sales, but split out separately in volume terms only. Defined as non-duty paid cigarettes (includes smuggled & counterfeit/fake products combined). Legitimate cross-border sales are considered duty-paid. Sales arising from a foreign national purchasing cheaper cigarettes in bulk in a neighbouring country for personal use and exported back are attributed to the country where the purchase is made (e.g. bulk cigarette sales by British nationals in France are attributed to France).See All of Our Definitions
This report originates from Passport, our Cigarettes research and analysis database.
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