Nearly all categories of packaged breakfast cereals have shown accelerated volume sales growth in 2020, as home-confined Italians have stockpiled staple foods to keep them from having to venture out as often and amid fears of stock-outs in stores. Many have also worked and studied at home, with the lack of commuting freeing up time for breakfast at home.
While children’s breakfast cereals are posting volume sales growth too, the category is losing appeal among a number of consumers, as the products are considered too sugary. They face competition from other breakfast products, such as rich-in-fibre biscuits or packaged pastries with superfoods.
Kellogg remains the clear leader in breakfast cereals in 2020, maintaining or growing its value share mildly in most categories as consumers show less desire to experiment with less-established breakfast cereals amid falling purchasing power, favouring familiar, well-trusted names. While the manufacturer offers a wide range of globally recognised brands, it continues to invest in its portfolio.
With Italians now able to buy breakfast cereals from foodservice again, in 2021 this channel is likely to recover from sales lost during the lockdown months. However, retail sales of breakfast cereals are expected to keep recording growth thanks to increased at-home consumption, as consumers whose disposable income level has declined will more likely avoid breakfast at bars.
Consumers who have lost their jobs or seen their income decline owing to COVID-19’s effect on the economy will certainly move to cheaper products, representing huge potential for private label to gain value share of breakfast cereals. Private label also offers organic variants within breakfast cereals (for example Verso Natura by Conad), which will become appealing alternatives to branded products with higher price points, at the same time offering healthier options compared with standard breakfast cereals.
Taste features will remain a decisive factor in the purchasing decisions of consumers of muesli and granola over the forecast period. Cameo SpA has continued to perform well in 2020, leading muesli and granola despite the numerous NPDs and subsequent gains made by Kellogg Italia.
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This report originates from Passport, our Breakfast Cereals research and analysis database.
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