Retail sales of baked goods are set to see a slight decline in growth in 2020 in volume. The direct cause of this is the Colombian government’s response to the COVID-19 virus.
Consumer health awareness has surged in 2020 as a result of the pandemic. There is a widespread understanding in Colombia that obesity is a high-risk factor for severe COVID-19, as well as a more general perception that sound dietary health is an essential foundation for resistance to the virus.
The stronger growth that packaged baked goods are set to see in 2020 are in many ways a result of the restrictions to normal operations faced by traditional bakeries. However, other factors have helped grow sales of these products in 2020.
Over the forecast period, volume sales are set to generate a CAGR that will be slightly lower than that of value sales in real terms, a reflection of a forecast slow increase in real term prices. This is during a period when increased retailer competition and in particular the growth in fluence of discounters is set to increase price pressure across most food categories, and the fact that this is taking place in what should be a very mature group of product staples is interesting.
The virus has made consumers more health aware, but there were already long-standing health trends in Colombia that have obstructed volume sales growth over the review period. Colombian consumers perceive baked goods to be especially fattening, and a substantial part of the population have sought ways to reduce or even abandon consumption.
Although unpackaged leavened bread is forecast to generated most volume sales of leavened bread in 2025, its share of sales is declining. Historically, artisanal bread from local bakeries has been the preferred choice of consumers, but the rising dominance of modern grocery retailers, especially in cities is set to see their share rise.
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This report originates from Passport, our Baked Goods research and analysis database.
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