COVID-19 is expected to increase consumption of essential items in Turkey, including bread. Especially during long periods of home seclusion, consumers consume high quantities of bread and this combined with concerns over potential shortages and uncertain futures is expected to result in a surge in demand for bread in 2020.
The closure of foodservice outlets during the COVID-19 has meant that many consumers are unable to obtain their usual sweet treats and indulgences. Coupled with an increased amount of time spent at home, this is expected to result in dynamic growth for cakes – especially compared to declining value sales at the end of the review period.
Artisanal bakers will continue to dominate baked goods in 2020 despite the impact of COVID-19, supported by the popularity of traditional freshly baked unpackaged leavened white bread, in addition to cakes and pastries. Although, due to COVID-19, the Ministry of Health has announced that popular Turkish bread which is usually purchased fresh and unpackaged must be covered when it is sold.
Although volume sales growth has been boosted by stockpiling and higher consumption rates during the COVID-19 lockdown, unpackaged leavened bread and unpackaged flatbread are both expected to return to much slower growth rates in the forecast period. The COVID-19 pandemic and stockpiling meant that packaged bread varieties were not always available to consumers, and so they would resort to unpackaged leavened bread and unpackaged flatbread to compensate.
Following dynamic growth during the COVID-19 pandemic, dessert mixes is expected to continue to exhibit good growth over the course of the forecast period in both retail volume and retail current value terms as consumers maintain habits established during the pandemic. The ease and practicality of dessert mixes will continue to appeal to consumers in the coming years with companies like Dr Oetker selling both traditional and more exotic dessert options.
Sales of pastries and cakes are under some pressure from home-baking. While many consumers still like to visit artisanal bakeries for their fresh unpackaged cakes, demand for unpackaged pastries dropped towards the end of the review period.
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