The implementation of the HFSS regulation restricting in-store and online presence from October 2022 is expected to challenge the future performance of various baked goods, especially in 2023 – when the regulation is set to impact a full year’s sales, while restrictions on volume-based promotions are also expected to be introduced. With packaged cakes, pastries, dessert pies and tarts and frozen baked goods comprising mostly high fat and sugar products and relying on impulse sales, limited in-store and online visibility is expected to lead to volume sales decline over the early part of the forecast period.
To reverse the negative outlook for packaged leavened bread and make their offerings stand out from competitors, especially private label, bread manufacturers are expected to continue investing to improve the nutritional value of their products. While inflation is expected to turn price-conscious consumers away from premium offerings, manufacturers addressing health concerns can strengthen their brands’ value proposition and mitigate the effect of the rising prices among consumers who are able to afford them.
As concerns around climate change intensify, baked goods manufacturers and retailers continue to invest in sustainability commitments. In addition, to tackle child poverty, Kingsmill has partnered with the charity Save the Child and extended its funding for NHS workers through the Kingsmill Kindness Fund, while steadily investing in packaging innovation by making its flexible plastic packaging recyclable across several collection points within UK supermarkets.
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Baked Goods
This is the aggregation of bread, pastries, dessert mixes, frozen baked goods and cakes. Note: Baked goods from in-store bakeries are classified under unpackaged/artisanal, not packaged/industrial. While they may be finished on-site, they are often prepared, then frozen or par-baked, at other locations. Such production models are very important for supermarket in-store bakeries, which have in the past been used to drive traffic and fill stores with appetising aromas, but for which the labour resources required to run a full-service scratch bakery are not always available.
See All of Our DefinitionsThis report originates from Passport, our Baked Goods research and analysis database.
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