Whilst the economic impact of COVID-19 led to weakened sales for baked goods, consumers spending more time at home, due to working from home and school closures, helped to maintain positive sales for bread. The rising prices of wheat and as well as increasing transport and distribution costs (due to disruptions to imports) are also driving retail current value.
Whilst bread, the key driver of the category, will record a decent performance in 2020, the other major driver, pastries, will witness a negative volume performance. Pastries are typically consumed on-the-go, so restrictions implemented in major cities to combat the spread of COVID-19 have therefore led to declining demand for pastries.
Artisanal producers will continue to lead value sales of baked goods in Nigeria in 2020, enjoying high demand from consumers, due to the products’ fresh-baked quality and value for money. Additionally, unpackaged products tend to be more widely distributed in heavily populated areas, thus appealing to the urban consumer base.
Population growth, particularly within the urban population, is expected to continue spurring growth in baked goods in Nigeria. This is because bread is a major staple food and pastries are a major on-the-go snack choice for urban commuters.
Over the forecast period, pastries are expected to see a strong recovery from the volume decline they will record in 2020. Pastries are an important snack due to their convenience for consumers on the move and so will continue to see good demand once restrictions on movements reduce and normal working patterns resume.
Despite cakes remaining a fairly niche category over the review period, cakes are expected to increase in popularity over the forecast period. There is a growing interest in purchasing and consuming cakes for social occasions, particularly in foodservice establishments where cakes are offered as a sweet snack to accompany meals.
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